$1/$2 Blinds - JJ - Flopped Set

[sniperd]

I feel this hand played itself to a degree, but what I am looking for is an opinion of the turn play.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 max, 5 handed)

SB ($195)
BB ($205.60)
Hero ($117.50)
MP ($7.45)
Button ($24.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, MP folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($17) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, BB calls $6.

<font color="blue"> I feel that if he doesn't have a King, or Jack, he is probably not calling anyways. I am giving close to correct odds for a flush draw, but I don't want to bet to much and make the King fold as he would be my moneymaker. Most players check sets, so I feel this small bet also lends to be deceptive. This player was mostly passive with hands so if the flush comes out and he bets, I feel confident that he has it, so I don't mind giving closer (but still wrong) odds to draw. </font>

Turn: ($29) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB raises to $20</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $50</font>, BB calls $30.

<font color="blue"> My thoughts were this, his check raise tells me he certainly has a king, and his kicker is probably good. This player was very passive and only betting TPBK or better, so I think he has KQ KT, and an equal chance of KJ or AK. Only 1 Jack left, and he would have bet out with 2 pair or TPBK on the flop. So he probably has KQ or KT.

Great, so, now the question is, best way to get him to commit. Is it a shove? Do I bet small and shove if he comes over? Do I check? What are your plans here for the turn and river.

My plan was this, bet small, represent a K with kicker trouble, if he comes over, make it $50 to go so I can bet $50 on the end, and he is semi forced to call. I thought that he may be able to dump KT or in the off chance he has K9 if I give too much action here.

This player had been playing very passive, but tight. I had only seen him turn over good starting hands. He was the kind of player that would check call every street AK with a flopped K if the board was dangerous at all, very cautious, not your typical party poker goon. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] </font>

River: ($129) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $53.5 (All-In)</font>, BB calls $53.50.

<font color="blue"> Well, after a pause he called my turn raise, so I shove it here since the pot is so big I feel he is forced to call any K with decent kicker. </font>

Final Pot: $236
<font color="green">Main Pot: $236, between BB and Hero.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Hero ($236).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
BB shows Ks Qh (three of a kind, kings).
Hero shows Jc Jh (full house, jacks full of kings).
Outcome: Hero wins $236. </font>

So, my question really is, what is the best way to play this turn knowing what I do about this player. I feel strongly that I have the best hand here, and he has 4 outs (case king, and 3 others for a bigger boat). Knowing that, what's the best way to get the money in by the river?

[Piiop]

Bet more on the turn. You raised to 4x the BB UTG - there's no way he'll put you on K w/ weak kicker.

I'm not sure about the river play here either. If he really is that tight you're not in good shape. Is he really still going to be holding onto KT here? If not, it's only AK, KJ, or KQ. If you're in his shoes, he's thinking he's behind here to AK, AA, JJ, and KJ, or splitting with another KQ. So, if he's that tight is he really going to call the river without having AK or KJ himself? But since he's passive, will he bet with KQ or KT after being checkraised? Probably not. Obviously he did call with the KQ so he's either not that tight or not very thoughtful. I'm still not sure about the river play.

[schwza]

if you believe he has a Kx on the turn, he has 7 outs. 3 2's, 3 x's, and the case K.

I don't like the little bet on the flop. You're giving great odds to a flush draw or OESD, and you're probably even giving correct odds to a gutshot (because you'll pay it off with your whole stack).

I like a bigger bet on the turn as well because then if somebody's drawing (dead, as it turns out) you can get more $ from them in the likely case that they miss their draw and fold on the river.

[sniperd]

Excellent points, your right about the 7 outs, totally spaced on that. I was wondering about my weak flop bet, good point.

Glad the turn bet got some approval, I wonder if I should have come out even stronger? I only bet $6 then I re-raise to $50. Good point about getting $$$ on the turn since a draw dumps on the river.

[sniperd]

Good point, he really can't put me on Kx due to my pre flop raise. From your analysis, and now that I think about it, I think he is tight pre flop, and then gets stuck on the flop, he did call with KQ from BB out of position after all. I had a tight/agg image myself, so what would he want to flop where he would like it with KQ?

It's starting to look like this hand has less and less to do with my plays, and more and more to do with my opponent choosing what cards to play.

My only defense on the river bet is I felt if he would call a re-raise to $50 ($30 more to him) then he would be willing to call $50 on the river, otherwise, why would he call the turn?

I think you bring up some interesting points what hands is he behind/ahead when playing KQ. It really shows the weakness of KQ as a hand. Thanks for your input!

[theBruiser500]

I don't like how you played this. First off, at the beginning of the hand you say your opponent is not calling the bet unless he has a king, so why bet just $6? The pot is $17 I think, bet $14 or so, he'll call that with a king. Not to mention, your $6 bet will not add any deception to your hand. The way you played this hand it is easy to read you. Come on, small flop bet, another tiny turn bet and then the min reraise followed by going all in on the river? It's obvious. I'd fold some very strong hands to you.

Bet $14 on the flop, then you bet $6 on the turn, that's weak. If he has a K, he's not getting away from this. There should be about $45 in the pot now, bet $40 on the turn, he'll either call or put you all in. Then on the river he's practically pot comitted.

[sniperd]

Interesting, thanks for the advice Bruiser. After the hand I was also pondering if the small flop bet was opening myself up to a world of hurt if my read is wrong and he is on a draw of any sort. Your play would fix a draw as well.