Another SNG Theory Question

[Sheriff Fatman]

[ QUOTE ]
A Party 100+9 starts with ten players 1000 chips and blinds increasing every ten hands. Now many of us argue what the upper bounds of ROI and ITM are, but many of us have opinions that are pretty close (perhaps 50% ITM and 40% ROI are close to the bounds-ROI I don't know since I don't really track it as closely).

What would the two upper bounds be in the following cases (feel free to answer all or any):

1. Blinds increase every 20 hands

2. You start with 2000 chips

3. Blinds increase every five hands (a bit odd I know)

4. You start with 500 chips

5. Blinds increase every 100 hands

6. You start with 10,000 chips.

I really don't have a great guess as to the answer to these questions. If you desire, please also feel free to guess average time for each (lets say 45 minutes ballpark average for standard). I ask partly out of pure curiousity, partly in response to a recent thread about someone's friend trying to win 1/3 and partly to try and figure out what would be the ideal blind structure to make money on these.

Regards

[/ QUOTE ]

I've only just seen this so it must have been bumped down pretty quickly. Here's my guesses.

1. Blinds increase every 20 hands
Marginal improvement on the existing structure - 10 extra hands is nice but is still probably quicker than the Stars time-based structure.

2. You start with 2000 chips
5-10% improvement in ROI and ITM as better players have more time to use their advantage. I saw a noticeable improvement in results moving up from 30's to 50's with only a 200 chip increase.

3. Blinds increase every five hands (a bit odd I know)
Crapshoot city - in theory certain players could be seriously disadvantaged by always paying higher blinds. The tournament basically boils down to seat position relative to the blinds, how quickly you find a hand and when and where players are knocked out.

There's probably no guarantee you could be a regular winner in this game.

4. You start with 500 chips
Another crapshoot - not much time to wait for premium hands so very dependent on your early cards.

5. Blinds increase every 100 hands
Big (10%+) improvement in ITM and ROI but a deterioration in hourly rate as the games would take much longer with an 'average' mix of players.

6. You start with 10,000 chips.
As for number 5, improved ROI and ITM but a deteriorating hourly rate.

T10,000 is probably too many chips for Party's structures but a figure such as T5,000 would be interesting with the current blind levels. Doubling through bad players would give you a significant chip advantage with more time to protect it before the blinds became significant. I think that would probably be somewhere close to the ideal as the games would still be over relatively quickly and most typical players wouldn't appreciate the more subtle plays (more potential to play draws for a smaller percentage of your chips) which the extra chips would allow.

Sheriff

[La Brujita]

Sherrif,

Thanks for the response. It is interesting that you and I came up with about the same number for category 2.

I would think case 5 would have a higher ITM than 10% but not really sure.

3 and 4 sound crazy I know but I have played exactly one B&M satellite one tabler and it was a bit like this format. Editorially, it was only a few weeks ago and I felt like I had a sign I had really made it as a decent poker player. I picked up AQo in the SB and pushed all in for 7x BB. BB called with 88 and the cards came QQxx8. I didn't bat an eye or even flinch, I just said gg and walked away. This was right on the heels of getting knocked out of a $200 multi without winning a hand. I felt like I had good emotional control.

5,000 is probably a better choice than 10,000. The reason I picked a big number is I am not sure may players would adjust to deeper money and also because I am a bit frustrated with shallow money formats, which take much of the post flop play out of tourneys. I love multis with slow blind increases for that reason.

Eastbay,

You phrased the question perfectly. I figured if anyone could answer it would be you or Bozeman.