#11
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Re: KK under pressure
Would the SB call a raise preflop with 97s (2 pair)? What about T8s (OESD) or 56s (DBBSD)? Any of those offsuit? Would the UTG call preflop then reraise the flop with an OESD plus a backdoor flush draw?
I think two pair is just too unlikely. I see top pair reraise sometimes, especially TPTK. How often does a draw check-raise here? I think that's very fishy, and you said these guys don't get out of line. I see monsters under the bed all the time, so I have trouble believing myself when I say "fold." |
#12
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Re: KK under pressure
At first, I thought this was a fold. Then I did the math.
A call commits me to a showdown for a minimum of 3 BB and possibly more. But there's already about 9 BB in the pot and it will have at least 15 in it by the end of the hand. Will kings stand up 20% of the time? You can certainly outdraw 2 pair, and there's a decent chance of A9/9x trying to isolate. I think what I do here is cap the flop and plan to check behind on the turn. |
#13
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Re: results
in the actual hand, i thought for about ten seconds before folding. part of the reason was that if the raising continued, i didn't know where i was going to dump the hand. another part is that good but not great players tend to reserve check-raises on the flop for pretty strong hands.
as i saw it, aside from a slim chance i was up against an overplayed one pair and a draw, my best hope is that i'm facing two pair and a draw. but given that these opponents were playing fairly tight and not too aggressive, a set is more likely than two pair, T8 or 86; especially for the player who called UTG. against a more typical brand of party 2/4 opponents i think i would have had a clear call, but in this case i felt a fold was the best play. also, a flop with two to a suit probably would have prompted me to call because of the added possibility of draws pounding the pot. by the way, UTG showed 99 and SB T9s at the river. |
#14
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Re: results
Sounds reasonable to me.
Colgin |
#15
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Re: results
Good read and good laydown. On this board, with a sane player, a set does seem likely. If I'm SB, I think I bet this flop rather than c/r.
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