Extreme Luck Shift?

[technogeeky]

Hey Folks,

My friend and I have been playing SNG tournaments for the past few months in order to improve game and make money.

Recently, though, his (and my) luck has dramatically changed.

We play at PokerRoom. Here is a summary of his play:

May 12 - June 16: played 60 games, won money in 26 of those, 15 first place, 5 second place, 6 third place

June 17 - June 23: played 30 games, won money in three of those, all three second place


I am not a conspiracy therorist or an idiot, but it does seem as though those numbers are way out of line. From winning ~45% of the games to winning ~10 seems like an unusual jump.

Is this normal in online play? Is it just part of the game?

[technogeeky]

For instance, here's an example of how I am losing.
Seat 1: SB ($1,750 in chips)
Seat 2: technogeeky [ 9C,KC ] ($840 in chips)

SB posts blind ($10), technogeeky posts blind ($20).

PRE-FLOP
Keveros calls $20, dickie222 calls $20, SDGRIFFIN folds, freebird10 folds, big persy calls $20, Debra Ann1 folds, kall my bluf folds, CBELL59 calls $10, technogeeky bets $150, Keveros calls $150, dickie222 folds, big persy folds, CBELL59 calls $150.

FLOP [board cards QS,3C,KS ]
CBELL59 checks, technogeeky bets $150, Keveros bets $700, CBELL59 folds, technogeeky calls $520 and is all-in.

TURN [board cards QS,3C,KS,3S ]


RIVER [board cards QS,3C,KS,3S,5S ]

SHOWDOWN
Keveros shows [ AD,3H ]
technogeeky shows [ 9C,KC ]
Keveros wins $30, Keveros wins $1,890.


Typically, I would have two pair and I would push in, but I always get called and outdraw on the turn. In the last 16 games I've played, I've lost 8 of them to this type of outdraw. 4 more to a flush-based outdraw.


How do you stop this?

[slogger]

It's part of the game. 60 tournaments is but a tiny sample. And 30 is almost nothing.

I regularly experience 6-10 game losing streaks during some my BEST stretches. The most important thing you can do during the tough times (as well as the good ones) is analyze your play. Every time you lose or get busted out, try to determine if there is anything that you could have done differently or better than may have given you a better opportunity to cash in that tournament.

Bad beats and suckouts will happen. And they will happen a lot at the lower buy-ins. Over time, the percentages always balance out.

[technogeeky]

Personally, I'm about to go broke. I started with a measly $50 and got it through time to $250 (playing in SNGs where I have 10x the buyin) and now i'm down to $25 because of a streak of losing. How much money do you need to handle these suck outs?

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
PRE-FLOP
Keveros calls $20, dickie222 calls $20, SDGRIFFIN folds, freebird10 folds, big persy calls $20, Debra Ann1 folds, kall my bluf folds, CBELL59 calls $10, technogeeky bets $150, Keveros calls $150, dickie222 folds, big persy folds, CBELL59 calls $150.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to make an adjustment. Read some posts on here, get a feel for how a lot of players make money and think about hands. To use nice words, this is not a good play at all.

[Colby818]

First, this is a fairly crappy beat. I wouldn't lose sleep over it, these will turn around.

That said, I don't really like the play here. I'd be curious to know what your read was on SB here. You made a $150 raise and he called it. Hindsight tells me that this is just a typical online large stack who feels that he needs to get in on any hand that he feels has any chance of winning. At the $10/20 level, I don't expect a call of that raise with A-3(unless I had made some dubious play earlier that perhaps led him to believe I was bluffing at having a big hand).

I worry more though about your post flop play. What were you thinking he had when he called? He didn't preflop raise you, so I lean away from thinking AA or AK, or likely even KQ. Though the presumption is probably wrong with this player, I'd have probably ruled out Q3 and K3 too. So, that in mind I think I'm winning at that point. I'm making a pot sized raise(which in this case is nearing the push threshold, but I don't think I'd push here). Bet the 300, and see if he comes over the top with the all in.

The more I look at his play though, the more I think you ran into a situation where you were against a player who was either 100% intent on bullying, or thought you were a weak player. I'm not sure any bet would have pushed him off of that hand.

You were winning when you pushed, which is always good. But, you didn't really push, you were pulled. I am loathe to let that happen unless I'm holding a moster and setting a trap. When you bet into a big stack, do it with conviction. It is said in TPFAP that big stacks lose their fear of going broke, and I find that to be especially true online. If you are willing to take TPLK to a showdown, then throwout a pot sized raise or push. If not, I'd check/fold this. Me, I'm throwing a potsized raise here and take my chances.

[technogeeky]

[ QUOTE ]
First, this is a fairly crappy beat. I wouldn't lose sleep over it, these will turn around.

That said, I don't really like the play here. I'd be curious to know what your read was on SB here. You made a $150 raise and he called it. Hindsight tells me that this is just a typical online large stack who feels that he needs to get in on any hand that he feels has any chance of winning. At the $10/20 level, I don't expect a call of that raise with A-3(unless I had made some dubious play earlier that perhaps led him to believe I was bluffing at having a big hand).


[/ QUOTE ]

He won a large pot from me earlier (I was a pretty significant chiplead, and his 44 sucked on my QQ preflop). He
had been betting into every hand and calling
every hand.

[ QUOTE ]

I worry more though about your post flop play. What were you thinking he had when he called? He didn't preflop raise you, so I lean away from thinking AA or AK, or likely even KQ. Though the presumption is probably wrong with this player, I'd have probably ruled out Q3 and K3 too. So, that in mind I think I'm winning at that point. I'm making a pot sized raise(which in this case is nearing the push threshold, but I don't think I'd push here). Bet the 300, and see if he comes over the top with the all in.


[/ QUOTE ]
I was fairly sure of the same thing - I put him on ace high, or just a big bluff.

The problem (what I'm whining about) is I always lose these hands. If I have the best hand and I'm all in before the turn, I always lose it. I pretty much thought this to be a bluff because of his previous play and his "insta-bet"
[ QUOTE ]


The more I look at his play though, the more I think you ran into a situation where you were against a player who was either 100% intent on bullying, or thought you were a weak player. I'm not sure any bet would have pushed him off of that hand.

You were winning when you pushed, which is always good. But, you didn't really push, you were pulled. I am loathe to let that happen unless I'm holding a moster and setting a trap. When you bet into a big stack, do it with conviction. It is said in TPFAP that big stacks lose their fear of going broke, and I find that to be especially true online. If you are willing to take TPLK to a showdown, then throwout a pot sized raise or push. If not, I'd check/fold this. Me, I'm throwing a potsized raise here and take my chances.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps another problem is I typically have two pair here. For instance:

I lost KA on the flop K6A to J6 except I pushed in. Who the hell calls this stuff?

[slogger]

I've heard a common suggestion that 50 buy-ins is appropriate ($550 for $10+1s). I think most solid players could get away with less, but 50 seems safe.

Right now, I'm playing with 185 buy-ins and trying to work it up to enough to have 100 buy-ins at the next level before I move up. But like I said, I'm a lot more risk-averse with my bankroll than some.

[slogger]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem (what I'm whining about) is I always lose these hands. If I have the best hand and I'm all in before the turn, I always lose it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guarantee that if you log every time that you're all-in over 100 tournies (still a relatively small sample), your win percentage will be almost exactly what the odds would project.

When going through a losing streak, it's not uncommon to feel like the gods of chance are picking on you. But as I mentioned earlier, you will minimize your bad runs and maximize your good runs if you analyze your play and keep trying to improve.

Mind that bankroll, and once you're in safer territory, keep at it! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[technogeeky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The problem (what I'm whining about) is I always lose these hands. If I have the best hand and I'm all in before the turn, I always lose it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guarantee that if you log every time that you're all-in over 100 tournies (still a relatively small sample), your win percentage will be almost exactly what the odds would project.

When going through a losing streak, it's not uncommon to feel like the gods of chance are picking on you. But as I mentioned earlier, you will minimize your bad runs and maximize your good runs if you analyze your play and keep trying to improve.

Mind that bankroll, and once you're in safer territory, keep at it! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there any known software for PokerRoom to help watch play?