Calling all in bets on the river ... strategy

[RichSaneSwindler]

PS 3/6 NLHE

I have QQ UTG, 22 pf bet called by BB, no other callers. At this table, the way I have been playing, this says "I have a good hand." Flop comes

2 7 Ar

I check, he checks. Turn comes another A. He bets 60, I call. At this point, I think the second ace makes it unlikely he has an ace because he is somewhat loose and agressive. I can't quite put him on a hand, though. River comes a blank, he moves all in $700. I have to call $651. What do I do? Two schools of thought:

1. Call him down otherwise you play the sucker for the rest of your life on PS. If you lose, you lose, you'll get it back.

2. Fold, even if it is the best hand. You don't have the nuts. Any Ace beats you, KK beats you, it's not good money. If he is moving in on a pure bluff, he'll do it again when you do have the nuts.

[AA suited]

i would choose #2. with an ace on the flop, you cant be certain you have top pair anymore.

and with that much $, i would fold and just wait till next time when you do have the nuts.

[schwza]

easy fold. he's way overbetting the pot, and could have some weird hand like a small PP that just hit the river. he may have just missed a c/r on the flop. and the reasoning in 1) really doesn't make sense - he could leave or lose it to somebody else, and when you rebuy you won't have enough to get his whole stack even if you were sure you could get all-in against him with a winner.

[bouh]

imo you lost this hand on the flop.
You should bet it on the flop. your check and call on the turn was weak, he knew you didn't have any ace (probably the same for him).
If you bet the flop there is a good chance he fold. If he doesn't then you can put him on the ace and check fold the turn. You did call his $60 bet on the turn when there was 2 aces so why not put them in the pot on the flop when only 1 ace is there. and you put the pressure on your opponent.

[tewall]

Let's say he bet 4 times the pot, which he almost did. Then the pot is offering you 5 to 4 odds, meaning you should call if you think you're 50/50 to win.

His best uninformed bluffing pct is 4/9, the same as the odds the pot is offering you, meaning if he bluffs exactly 4 times for every 5 times he has a legitimate hand, it doesn't make any difference if you call or not. If he bluffs more than that, you should call; if less, fold.

Your best uninformed calling pct. is to call once in five times. That will keep him from making a profit in this situation. Notice you only need to call quite infrequently to keep him from profiting when he overbets the pots by so much.

I think this is an easy fold as it's more likely that your opponent hopes you will misread him for a bluff and call rather than he actually is bluffing. For all he knows you may have an Ace. That flop is an excellent flop to slow-play, so it's unlikely he could deduce you don't have an Ace.

I disagree with the other poster about betting the flop. I think you played the hand correctly. You're hand is strong enough to call down a check/check, pot/call, pot/call sequence, but not more than that. By checking you're likely to make more than betting, if your opponent is aggressive. It's to your advantage to keep the pot size under control. Your hand's not strong enough to go to the felt unless a Queen comes.

[RichSaneSwindler]

Thanks for all the comments ... bottom line is I called the bet thinking he didn't have anything and, well, he had AKs and I lost $700. Lessons learned:

1. Need to be a man with a plan: as mr. bouh said, I lost it on the flop. On the flop, I needed to say to myself: ok, either (a) I bet the flop, and fold or check it down if he plays back or calls, or (b) check the flop and say, ok, I am now showing weakness, if he bets I am going to have to give him credit for the ace. If he checks as well, then what is my plan? If I check the turn and he bets, unless I triple up I am folding (I don't put him on AA).

2. PEOPLE RARELY OVERBET THE POT ON A PURE BLUFF ON THE END: Sure it does happen, and guys like Phil Ivey make it happen, but it happens so rarely it's worth it to just fold the best hand occasionally.

[bouh]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
I disagree with the other poster about betting the flop. I think you played the hand correctly. You're hand is strong enough to call down a check/check, pot/call, pot/call sequence, but not more than that. By checking you're likely to make more than betting, if your opponent is aggressive. It's to your advantage to keep the pot size under control. Your hand's not strong enough to go to the felt unless a Queen comes.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you never bet the flop on those occasion you are giving away a lot of pots !
check/calling on 4th and 5th is weak and will most often result with a bluff attemp on the river by the opponent (like in this hand) or you will find out he had an ace and you will muck on the river (after calling 2 bet, turn and river).
betting the flop you represent a big ace, if he call you can be sure he has one too and so you can fold on the turn with no regret. If you check/check and then check/call check/call you are calling his bets without any information of what your opponent can handle. You don't know if you are beat and you most often will be. You get married to your hand as you try to go to the showdown with it. This hand will cost you a lot more than if you bet the flop. Betting the flop is less expensive and give you some informations that you will miss if you just check/call all the way.

ps: excuse me for the bad english, it's not my primary language.

[tewall]

The flop is Ace blank blank, so the question is how good is QQ in this situation. I think it's good enough to handle a check/check, pot/call, pot/call sequence and that this, or check/check, pot/call, check/check are likely. If you bet the flop, you are basically saying your hand is no better than QJ (or 72). It really depends on how likely your opponent is to fire away at you if he doesn't have the Ace. Your suggestion, bet the flop, and back away at a show of strength is a safe way to play, but I think would win more against an aggressive opponent than the line you're suggesting, but it really depends on the opponent.

[ QUOTE ]
if you never bet the flop on those occasion you are giving away a lot of pots !


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. The line of play I was suggesting was a general one, not meant to be done all the time. It's a mistake to play predictably with any holding.