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#11
06-17-2004, 04:07 PM
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Re: And then...
Ok, now we're talking about a real decision.
First, folding is right out. Now, can you raise? That turn stop-n-go is often a weak made hand, afraid, as apparently everyone in the poker universe is afraid, to have you pull the old free-card trick on him with your flush draw. He bets the turn because he likes the fact that the turn was not a diamond. Why does he bet the river? Perhaps he made 2 pair and thinks his hand is good but is afraid you'll check it through. What does he think you have? Well, you've gone nuts attacking an AKT3 board, so it's not too clear that even if he has two pair aces and fours that they're any good. Doesn't mean he won't play it this way, it just makes it a little less likely. What about that flush draw? Surely the flop is consistent with a flush draw. The turn? It's a little surprising to see a bet there, don't you think? Unless he has, say, a pair to go along with his flush draw. Kd Qd for example. But no, you hold the Kd. That's out. Hmmm... it's possible he's just playing strangely, but it doesn't look like he has a flush, does it? So, all this stop-n-go action has led us to the conclussion that it's hard to put our opponent on a hand, but he's could have either two pair or a flush. If we raise, folding to a 3-bet sounds rather painful, so a raise offers our opponent 2:1 against his having a flush. I don't think it's there. You should certainly call. You may even be the favorite, but raising doesn't feel right. Now if your opponent is so passive that he won't 3-bet with a hand you can beat, that may change things, but without some very player-specific information, I think calling the river is the best choice. my 2 cents. -eric 
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#13
06-17-2004, 06:27 PM
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Re: And then...
Yes, really the only decision is whether to raise or call. Folding is definitely out of the question.
And in case you've never played with me before, I tend to raise moreso than call. ~stephen
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