Bad SNG Run...how many?

[MercTec]

I'm hurtin...probably my worst run in a long long time. 6 straight SNGs (20s) out of the money. 2 of those were 4th place finishes. Just a bad run? Anyone have worse streaks thats a winning player?

[mak_662]

thats all? take a couple days off, read a couple of posts and consider yourself lucky that a bad run only costs you 6 sngs or about $120. Bad runs can go on for months or years. I have personally experienced them when I have become comfortable with my play or I allow myself to make stupid mistakes over and over without stepping outside of my perspective and examining my game. Thats why I tell you to leave for a while and you'll not only come back a better player but you'll be hungry for a game or two.

[Grivan]

First, there is a SNG forum which would probably get you more answers to your question.

Second, 6 SNG is not a lot. People who play 4 tables at a time can probably play 6 SNGs in an hour. If you have long term winning results at SNGs I hardly think a 6 SNG losing streak is significant. Of course since your posts implies that losing the $132 is a big hit to your bank roll perhaps you are playing over your head, and should move down a bit in the SNG field.

[Bernas]

excellent suggestion. My play suffers when I am playing too much. Take time off from actual playing and study for a while (2-4 days) and see how well you do when you come back.

[La Brujita]

I have lost 11 in a row on two separate occasions. It is just part of playing a lot of tournaments but it does truly stink.

[Jaycie]

WrongForumMan where are you?
You've definatly dropped the ball on this one.

[MAxx]

6 in row hurts, true i have done that. I am a winning player, tournament, sng, and ring games. I mainly play ring games, and only played about 100 sng's. So I do not have a large sample size to back up my words, but I would not think it freakishly unusually to lose 12 or 18 in a row if you played sngs long enough. I would just make sure you are playing with a solid enough bankroll, and carry on as before.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
6 straight SNGs (20s) out of the money... Anyone have worse streaks thats a winning player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Few winning players claim to be in the money more than 50% of the time over the long run. 40-45% is common, and possibly quite good if you take first frequently when you cash. Why do good players lose so much? Maybe SNGs are so easy that if they didn't throw them pretty frequently, all of the fish would leave. Wait, that's not it. Maybe there is a lot of luck involved in addition to skill.

If the results are independent (don't tilt, and don't change how much you play for the win), and you lose with probability p, then the average wait between the starts of streaks of length at least n is 1/(p^n (1-p)). If you are in the money 45% of the time, the average waits between the starts of losing streaks (p=.55) of length at least n are as follows:


n average wait
1 4
2 7
3 13
4 24
5 44
6 80
7 146
8 265
9 483
10 877

15 17432
20 346365

Even if you are a very good player, losing 6 in a row should happen several times in the process of playing the several hundred SNGs you need to play to estimate your ITM and ROI values accurately.

[dethgrind]

I'm not sure I follow, does this mean you on average place in the money 4 times in a row before starting a 1 or more game losing streak? That can't be right.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
Bad runs can go on for months or years

[/ QUOTE ]

Can a few others confirm this? I cant imagine a winning player having a losing year playing ONLY 1 table SnG's at the same level. Even if you are only a 40% ITM player, a year long seems to long to not even out. playing 10 a day, 5 days a week for a year is over 2,500 SnGs. If I was losing after that many I would consider my play to be off. A bad year I can understand..... but a losing year ? Perhaps I still have a lot to learn about how big swings can be.