Will Smarty pull it off?

[Clarkmeister]

I like a cold tri of Smarty, Eddington and RH10. I don't think Purge can get the distance, and picking up 11 pounds and an extra 3 furlongs from his race 2 weeks ago should ensure that he finishes up the track.

Of course, now Purge will win by daylight since I said that. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[BeerMoney]

That sucked.. I was really pulling for him. I wanted to cry.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

He ran his race. He pulled away from his major competition entering the lane and got run down in the last 1/16 by a horse who ran the race of his life. Racing's a cruel game. Sort of like poker.

Smarty got rivered.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
He ran his race. He pulled away from his major competition entering the lane and got run down in the last 1/16 by a horse who ran the race of his life. Racing's a cruel game. Sort of like poker.

Smarty got rivered.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, he just ain't a 12f horse.

I think it is of note the sequential quarter times of run by Smarty (approximated with .20 sec/length adjustment).

1st - 24.53
2nd - 24.82
3rd - 23.01
4th - 23.48
5th - 25.08
6th - 27.18

That last quarter isn't the early fractions, that's simply distance limitations. His 3rd and 4th quarters, coupled with the very respectable 5th quarter reaffirm that this is a superb 10f horse and should be a real threat at the end of the year. But hitting the wall like he did really shows that 12f is just beyond him. Hansel, by comparison, ran a 46.60 time to the first half mile, and still was able to come home in a final quarter of :26 to hang on and wire the field.

At the end of the day, he just didn't have it. He ran his heart out and probabaly outran his pedigree to finish as well has he did. But that last quarter is more than just getting tired, that's genes.

The good news is that he looks like he could still be a monster at 10f. His Preakness time slightly faster than Southern Image the day before lends credence to this. As does the fact that given a typical Belmont 10f race yesterday (with the gate halfway on the turn instead of two turns) he would likely have run a sub-2:00 10f. Even on a track as fast as Belmont was yesterday, that's impressive as heck for a 3yo in early June. So I'm psyched for the end of the season if he stays healthy, but I can't blame Elliot for his collapse. That :27.18 final quarter tells the story.

[southerndog]

[ QUOTE ]

1st - 24.53
2nd - 24.82
3rd - 23.01
4th - 23.48
5th - 25.08
6th - 27.18



[/ QUOTE ]
Clarke, I know less about racing than I do about poker, but it looks like he didn't pace himself as well as possible. That's what your splits point to for me. But again, I don't know anything about horse racing. I do know that Alan Webb who ran a recent sub 4-minute HighSchool mile ran his quarter splits right around 59s each. The key to his superb time was an even pace, and probably a TON of TALENT!

[Clarkmeister]

No doubt his splits weren't ideal, but while his 3rd and 4th quarters were fast indeed, a quarter in over :27 by a horse of his calibur is essentially inexplicable other than the fact that he simply isn't bred to go that far. I mentioned another horse, Hansel, in my post. Hansel went the first 2 quarters of the race in :23.2 and :23.4, but was still able to come home in :26 flat. :27.18 is literally walking home.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

You may be right, but I've heard the "breeding" argument for as long as I can remember, and I just don't buy it 100%. Secretariat was bred to be a miler, as was Seattle Slew. I tend to think that Smarty lost this one because of a combination of factors - 1) the grind of not just these last 3 races, but the preps before that, 2) a sandy track that is typically not condusive to speed holding up, 3) the fact that he, like all horses, is not a machine and hit a slight downturn in his form cycle (I would be interested in seeing his Beyer for this race), and 4) a great performance by one of his rivals, a natural stayer who *is* capable of running all day. Sure, add breeding in there another contributing factor. Bottom line is, he got the distance better than all the rest of his opposition (some of which were considered "bred" for the distance) except one, who passed him inside the 1/16th pole.

The argument's academic, anyway. The distance isn't run at the top level for dirt horses any more, and once the fall rolls around and the rest of his generation has the chance to mature, the division may sort itself out differently anyway.