Flopped trips vs flush

Wada · #1 06-04-2004, 01:23 AM

Ok I dont mean to post this as a bad beat. I know this hand will make you sad but really I want to know if my raise on the turn against the four flush on board was a good idea. I was hoping to bluff (sometimes it works even at the .50/1 tables) this guy making him think that I had the flush when I really didnt. After this hand I put him as a calling station - and damn he sure was for the rest of the night.

Was the raise on the turn a good idea or should have just bet or check/call??

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Wada is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, Wada raises, SB folds, BB (Villain) calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players) 
Villain checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, Wada bets, Villain calls, UTG+2 folds, MP2 folds.

Turn: (5.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players) 
Villain bets, Wada raises, Villain calls.

River: (9.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players) 
Villain checks, Wada bets, Villain calls.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

Results in white below: 
Villain shows Td 5s (flush, ace high).
Wada shows Ac Ah (three of a kind, aces).
Outcome: Villain wins 11.25 BB.

Jeff · #2 06-04-2004, 02:34 AM

Ugh.

I don't do so well in bad situations for PPs, but you raised the turn with a 4 flush out, knowing one diamond will beat you? Close to half of all possible hands would be way ahead of you, you are facing the big blind, sure, he called your raise, but he could have anything.

Raising the turn is just going to win you the pot if the guy dosen't have a diamond, he won't fold to a raise holding a flush. If you are ahead, he will fold to your raise in all likelyhood, unless he's holding 2 pair and is an idiot.

Your outs as of the turn, known to yourself:
1 ace (Garunteed win)
K, 4, or J (Hit a boat with them) - 9

10 outs, out of 46 cards, shows a 1/4.6 chance of you winning, assuming you are behind on the turn, and improving wins it for you. Consider a chance at splitting too (8 diamonds? Assuming your opponent has a flush here is a good idea, as it's a very likely scenario). The pot was 5.25BB, but implied odds are bad, as you would be putting half the money into the pot. Calling a bet here seems like a good idea, as the pot is large enough, but raising is a losing proposition - you are increasing pot size by a significantly worse ratio than you have a chance at winning (1:2 versus 1:4.6)

I'd have check called the turn, and probably called a bet on the river.

Always consider how many hands can beat you. Always. In this case, ANY diamond, and QT is ahead of you. When the turn hits, any diamond, and any queen is ahead of you. That's more than half of all possible hands.

One note to make is that I would make a note on that player: "VERY PASSIVE".

His play makes it look like he was playing something like 44 in a case like this, he didn't show any real agression at all.

cjromero · #3 06-04-2004, 08:32 AM

I'm with Jeff on this one. I would not raise the turn here, because anyone without a diamond is probably folding to the raise, and anyone with a diamond has you beat unless you fill up on the river. I just don't see it as a value bet.