$125 NL Tourney - Near the Bubble - Tough Call

[Any Two Suited]

My local casino's weekly $125 NL Tourney.
150 players. We are down to the final 3 tables. About 25 people. Top 20 pay.

I'm at about T10000. About average stack at my table, though below average overall.

For this hand, I am 3 off the button. Several lesser stacks between me and the BB, who is the chip leader, or close to it. Play has been tight recently, with raises taking down the blinds. The chip leader does not seem to be interested in playing sheriff.

Blinds are 700/1500. I have KTs, and it is folded to me.

I make it 4500 on the steal, which would put one remaining player all-in, and would damage some other folks between me and the BB (feel free to critique my steal attempt here, though that's not the gist of my post).

All fold to the BB (chip leader), who thinks for a few seconds, and then calls the 3500 more to him.

Flop: 3-9-Q rainbow, none of my suit.
BB thinks for a couple seconds, then pushes.

I've got about T5500 remaining, so I'm being offered about 2.75-1 here.

I try to think about what hands he'd just call me with, and then move in on this flop (I don't have him as the kind of player who'd make the "stop and go" play, so I gotta think this flop gave him something).

I rule out: AA, KK, QQ, as I think he would have just pushed on me on the flop.

Possibilities I come up with are: KQ, QJ, QT, JT, 99.

Against KQ and 99, I'm drawing to 4 outs, and don't have odds to call.
Agasint QJ, I've got 6 outs. No odds.
Against QT, I've got 7 outs. Just barely getting the odds.
Against JT, I'm ahead, with 8 outs against me, and 4 to a redraw for me if he hits an 8.

After thinking for a couple minutes, and hearing "PLAYER OUT" on another table - getting me even closer to the money - I decide not to gamble, and fold.

I did end up making the final 2 tables (finishing 16th overall). During the break, I approached my opponent, asking him what he had. He told me, and I'll reveal that after getting some thoughts on the play from you all.

Thanks.

[fnurt]

Other hands you didn't mention are AQ, A9, K9, 33.

This feels like an easy fold to me. The only conceivable hand you're ahead of is JT. You don't have the odds to call QJ, and QT just barely gives you the odds, but I don't think you're supposed to call off your entire stack if you're barely getting the odds.

You do have the odds to call if he's betting a 9, but that's an iffy proposition.

[TheGrifter]

I would fold here on the flop. You took a shot with a couple suited broadway cards, you missed, muck 'em.

Also, I don't like the preflop play. This is one of those situations in which I prefer the minimum raise or all-in. Since you were on the bubble I would probably throw away the hand but if you are determined to make a move here a min. raise will probably achieve the same thing that a 3xBB raise will.

My first choice here is fold preflop, 2nd is min. raise, 3rd is push in.

[nolanfan34]

Based on your read of him, I think this is a fold as well. Although he MIGHT have a hand that gives you proper odds, somehow I don't think he's pushing here with a sub-standard hand like QT. I think he pushes because he feels it will be tough for you to lay down a good hand, and he wants you to call him because he thinks he has you beat.

I'll take a guess that he had AQ.

[hebe151]

I would say you have to fold here even though you have committed a large percentage of your stack to the pot already...good job on recovering and making it into the money. I would guess he had 33

[Any Two Suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Other hands you didn't mention are AQ, A9, K9, 33.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should have mentioned AQ as a hand I felt he would have put me all in on pre-flop.

As for the others (A9, K9, 33) - for right or wrong - I ruled those out as possbile calling hands for this opponent at this time.


[ QUOTE ]
You don't have the odds to call QJ

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, I edited my post to reflect that I only have 6 outs in this case. Thanks.


[ QUOTE ]
...and QT just barely gives you the odds, but I don't think you're supposed to call off your entire stack if you're barely getting the odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was exactly my conclusion.

Thank you for your reply.

[Any Two Suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I don't like the preflop play. This is one of those situations in which I prefer the minimum raise or all-in. Since you were on the bubble I would probably throw away the hand but if you are determined to make a move here a min. raise will probably achieve the same thing that a 3xBB raise will.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not a big fan of the mini-raise, but in this situation - and not just based on the results - I think you're right, that would have been the best move.

Thank you all for the replies thus far.

[ZootMurph]

On the bubble, I don't want to jeopardize my whole stack. That being said, with the chip leader as the BB, I don't want to try to steal from him, even if he doesn't want to 'play sheriff'. And, if you are set on a steal, a 3x bet is not enough against the chip leader on the blind. Being that this is half your stack, I'd probably fold KTs.

As for the rest, folding the flop on his all in is the only choice. Why jeopardize my stack on an inside straight draw with 3 possible King outs as well? If the flop had QJ, I'd consider calling.

Now, what did the BB say he had? I'm guessing he had 33. Maybe 99, but I think he may have reraised preflop with 99 (I would have). For some reason, 27o keeps coming into my head on a pure bluff... but I don't think that was what he was holding, LOL.

[Mackas]

On top of those hands you mention and those mentioned by fnurt I've also seen players make this play in a tourney with any other pp (and sometimes even other hands too) that missed the flop completely, gambling that it missed you too. They also seem to do this more often when no A or K hits the board as these ebing the most likely cards you hold when you raised. I'm not justifying or condoning this play just saying that I've seen it.

Whatever he has, I think you have to fold as he had to have something to call you preflop - a pp, an Ax or a Kx most likely. Even if he went as low as a suited connected queen you're in trouble and any realistic K (ie K9 up) or any A is still in front of you at this stage. Pot odds are all very well but you're out if you don't improve and if the table is as tight as you say its been, even with 5500 you might be able to either double up or steal a few sets of blinds with marginal hands to get you back in it. I fancy your chances of getting back into it that way more than by calling here.

BTW I wouldn't give a huge amount of credit to what he told you he had later on. I very rarely tell the truth when asked that and I would imagine most players are the same (unless you're dealing with a friend and even then I wouldn't be so sure) so if he told you he played a 45s or some other nonsense I wouldn't go jumping out the window yet, he's probably talking out of his backside anyway.

From the way you said he's played up until now, not wanting to play sheriff etc, you have to give him credit for something before the flop and even if he has missed the flop and thinks he's bluffing w a KJ or A8 etc he's still in front of you anyway so you have to fold.

GL

Mackas

[ZootMurph]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW I wouldn't give a huge amount of credit to what he told you he had later on. I very rarely tell the truth when asked that and I would imagine most players are the same (unless you're dealing with a friend and even then I wouldn't be so sure) so if he told you he played a 45s or some other nonsense I wouldn't go jumping out the window yet, he's probably talking out of his backside anyway.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. I don't think I've ever told the truth on what I was holding when someone has asked. Unless the player shows you his hand, you have to take what he says with a grain of salt.