When you can't play winning poker but don't know why (Long)

[RED_RAIN]

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It's so hard to tell even with a small database of only 10k hands (mine is small too). Once you get to 30k you can start to see something but really need like 100k to know for sure from what I've heard.

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This is true for the win rate, but if we're talking about e.g. VP$IP you can be pretty sure what it is after 10000 hands. It won't change much.

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Good point.

[TheRake]

Scott,

We have played together a few times since you started on your downswing. I want to tell you these things as a freind and a fellow 2+2er. I sincerely hope I will not offend you in anyway, but I want to help.

I don't think the problem lies within your pre-flop play. Some of the other posters have made note of your low W$SD%. I think the key lies in this number. In the times we have played I have noticed your reluctance to let go of a hand (even with bottom pair or AK). Another thing I have noticed is your case of FPS (Fancy Play Syndrome). You seem to want to wait until the turn or the river to do all your raising of good but not great hands. Try to play more straight forward for awhile and see if it helps. One hand that comes to mind was a QQ hand you played where you had position flop came Jxx turn T river T. You decided to wait for the river to raise, but then the 2nd T came on the river and you were afraid to raise and just called. You won the hand but missed a bet in the process. When I told you that you should have raised the turn you seemed uninterested in discussing it. QQ is a good hand but not invincible and you should be thinking about winning the pot not slow playing. I think if you focus on playing straight forward ABC poker for awhile you will see things turn around.

TheRake

[me454555]

thanx for the response, this was exactly the kind of post I was looking for

[me454555]

While I definatly didn't play this hand well and I think its an interesting hand to discuss.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Probobly shoulda 3 bet this one here

Turn: (4.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Or at least raised it up here

River: (6.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 8.25 BB, between BB and Hero.</font>

[BobbyD]

Great advice Rake - lately I've found myself getting too cute.

My mathmatical and scientific conclusion is that the Poker Gods do not like to see this type of play and will punish you for it by bringing a turn card that is good enough for your opponent to call your raise and a river card that completes their hand.

Playing straight forward with a sprinkling of cute only with optimal conditions doesn't seem to offend them.

[TheRake]

Scott,
The order of the cards is a little different than I remembered, but hey not bad for a hand that didn't involve me [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Looking at this now I am even more convinced that the turn raise is correct. There is a flush draw and a str8 draw on the board. If BB is on a draw the turn raise will maximize his punishment. If he misses his draw he is not going to pay off a river bet so you need to make your money from him on the turn. If he has TP he will pay you off anyway. You also have overcards to worry about.

TheRake

[me454555]

I definatly agree w/that

[jt1]

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2,300 hands is a blip. I just got out of a 6,000 losing streak. Be patient, it will turn around.

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If my numbers are right then 6000 hands equal about 100 hours of internet poker. And that ain't nothing! Over the last 200 hours of internet poker I'm up about 20-30 bb, which means that I'm 2-3 bad beats away from being even after all that time. Post your hands here. It's a fantastic help, but this is a crazy game, and the pitfalls are to be expected. good luck. jt

[jt1]

I'd say the BB has AJ, A10, KJ or K10. You either missed a small bet or saved yourself one if he had that 10.

In this particular hand it won't hurt you much if you just call down. But in other hands against more opponents you must raise to knock them out of the game or to cut down their odds. The worse their odds are the more money you are making from them. When in doubt - raise! Easier said than done. I'm still making far too many errors ignoring this concept. The same can be said for calling when raising is definitely out of the question (although you maybe surprised in how many situations come up when raising is preferable to calling but seems on the surface insane - and none of these that i know of are mentioned in the books).

[Faststan]

I went thru a similar losing streak.I am a novice at poker
but an advanced BJ player with over 20 yrs experience.
Your answer is this.Standard deviation.You are in the
short,short run.Psychologically,its devastating but learn to
live with it.Do not doubt your game.IT will change 100% sure.
Important-read some books on psychology.