Holding overcards in a raised pot?

[Sandwich]

I'm in middle position and get AKs, which I raise and get three callers. The flop comes J 9 5 rainbow, BB checks and EP bets. What should I do?

My initial gut reaction is to call here, as my two overcards appear to give me six outs (any ace ort king). But do I really have six outs? If someone called a raise with a hand that has made a pair on this board, isn't his kicker probably an ace or king? Especially in a low limit small stakes game where people routinely call raises with hands like AJo or K9s. Add to that the fact that a king may complete an opponent's straight if he holds QT. Furthermore, if an opponent called my raise with a hand like J9s or 55, I'm pretty much drawing dead.

So, isn't my best move here to fold? Or at the very least to bluff raise -- but with potentially four of us in this pot that seems risky to do without much of a hand. (I wonder if the analysis changes if the rainbow flop gives me a runner-runner flush draw, but I don't see how that would affect things all that much.)

But doesn't this analysis go against the advice of Noted Poker Authority Ed Miller, who says not to fold for one bet in a raised pot? What is the correct move here??

[dmk]

How did you open-raise from MP if there's an EP in the hand on the flop [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Sandwich]

thanks... sorry, I guess I meant "raise" not "open raise"

(still learning the terms)

[JARID]

Sandwich,

I don't know man, you seem a little paranoid here. The flop could be K J 5 rainbow, someone could have 55 and you are essentially dead as well. Also, based on your clarification the EP did not call two cold, he limped and then called your raise.
What type of player is EP? Does he have EP limping standards? He probably has a jack. Maybe J9 or KJ, but maybe QJ or J10. The fact is you don't know and folding seems too tight here. I think I would raise and go from there.

Regards,
Jarid

[Ed Miller]

(I wonder if the analysis changes if the rainbow flop gives me a runner-runner flush draw, but I don't see how that would affect things all that much.)

The presence of a backdoor flush draw is a very significant factor whenever you have overcards (or really any other hand, for that matter).

[ZManODS]

[ QUOTE ]
If someone called a raise with a hand that has made a pair on this board, isn't his kicker probably an ace or king?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the small stakes forum so im assumming you are talking about $2/4 players and lower. You will see players call your raise with anything! I was just playing $3/6 at party and i raised UTG+1 with pocket aces (Dont think i raised preflop yet at this table) and i got called by 98o and Q9o. Sadly to say 98o flopped 2 pair and i lost. This is not uncommon for lower limits.

[Sandwich]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If someone called a raise with a hand that has made a pair on this board, isn't his kicker probably an ace or king?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the small stakes forum so im assumming you are talking about $2/4 players and lower. You will see players call your raise with anything! I was just playing $3/6 at party and i raised UTG+1 with pocket aces (Dont think i raised preflop yet at this table) and i got called by 98o and Q9o. Sadly to say 98o flopped 2 pair and i lost. This is not uncommon for lower limits.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yes, 2/4 or lower. I can understand this reasoning if we're talking about heads up or even three-way, but with three or more callers, my thinking is SOMEONE probably has me beat now, and the cards I want may not give me the best hand. Opponents at this level have a reasonable chance of holding A5, AJ, K9, J9, QT, 55.

Also, Ed Miller--- thanks for the response. A back door (nut) flush draw would make things juicy enough for me to stay in for another bet? I'm curious, though, what you would suggest in the above raised-pot scenario without that back door flush draw. Call anyway?

Thanks all.

[BigEndian]

I'm raising or folding here, preferably raising. The rest of the action depends on the results of your raise.

Deja vu all over again...

- Jim

[BusterStacks]

I'm folding without implied odds of 8:1