Some thoughts...

[imcastleman]

How long will successful online poker players be able to profit?? Will there come a point where every single table $200 tourney I play in will be a total crapshoot? Currently I know that I have a long ways to go in the game of poker, but if my game were as good as the tournament points leaders online, then do I have to worry about not having enough of a significant edge that the rake starts to come into effect? Thoughts from anyone?

The reason I ask this is because I have already made my annual salary playing poker but can't even consider quitting since I have a family and PartyPoker doesn't offer health insurance(haha). Of course, if I had to depend on my poker skills solely as my income, I worry that I may not play as well.

Anyone have any comments?

[Daliman]

Well castle, we've played a few together and you seem to acquit yourself pretty well. I had and have the same concerns regarding insurance, family, and the like as you, which are now allayed as the wife got a juicy new job as a drug pusher, so now I'm Mr. Mom. Anyways, I first recommend taking diligent notes. I use Statking, Pokertracker, and an Excel file for my tracking, so I'm covered on most every from there. If you don't have any of these, i suggest you get them. If you want the Excel DB i use,(Riapeno on Party made it; simple, concise and quick.), send me an email at daliman13@yahoo.com, i'll send it to you. Also, make sure you have an affiliate account set up. This adds anywhere from $1.50 to $3.75 per tourney to your earn, and if you ever go pro or close, it's an easy $1500-3000 a month extra..
As far as your edge, well, if you get real good, you have little to worry about as it stands with party right now. I have over 2300 players in my pokertracker database, and can honestly say, in my opinion, less than 100 of them are any good. my opinion is that at any given table, the average is 1 good player, 2 decent players, 3 half-decent players, and 4 fish. Even among the top 100 tourney players in points., i'd say at least 75 of them are decent at best. I see little reason to believe this influx of fish will change anytime soon, and i'm of the opinion the games will only get better.
I'd say the safe # if you are tracking results is, if after 500+ tourneys, you are averaging over $20 per(in $200+15's), you are probably in good shape. SOunds like you definitely are doing that, but if you're significantly higher than that,($50+), it's likely a deviation. My first 140 $200+15 tournaments, i averaged almost $119 @, and was at $75 @ still after 300. Also, some of these results are predictated on how many tourneys you play at a time. If you play 1 or 2, your #'s should be a bit higher, but at 3 to 4 at a time, I think $33-36 @ is about as good as possible.
Try not to let short-term results bother you. I've had a run of 39 tourneys where i lost 4200 in one night, but I have never lost more than $600 over any 100 tourney span. Now, supposedly, I'm pretty good at these, so maybe your #'s may not be as good or consistent, but look for wild deviations in results, (of course, mainly downwards) and make adjustments where necessary.
Also, depending on your type of work, see if it would be possible for you to work as few hours as possible while still getting insurance. If this is an hourly job, should not be much of a problem. It sounds as if you are salaried, so maybe you could take a small pay cut to offset the less hours worked, but still keep insurance active. It would probably be worth your while.