Was this 2/4 flop checkraise overly aggressive or simply SOP?

[chesspain]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

I hadn't been at the table for very long, although the main opponent in this hand seemed your typical ABC, bad beat whiner.

Preflop: chesspain is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, chesspain calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(6 players) </font>
chesspain checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">chesspain raises</font>, BB folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (8 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">chesspain bets</font>, MP3 calls.

River: (10 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">chesspain bets</font>, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 11 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 10 BB, won by chesspain.</font>
<font color="#990066">Pot 2: 1 BB, overbet by chesspain.</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
chesspain shows 7s 7c (two pair, sevens and threes).
Outcome: chesspain wins 11 BB. </font>

[sfer]

SOP. Ni han Sir.

[brick]

I like this play quite a bit if the table is kinda tight and not all hands are going to showdown. For example, off-peak games (especially on Monday and Tuesday).

It's a little less effective when you're playing with several calling stations.

Was your river bet a value bet?

Were you hoping he would call with 6's?
Or were you hoping he would fold a T?

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]

Was your river bet a value bet?

Were you hoping he would call with 6's?
Or were you hoping he would fold a T?

[/ QUOTE ]

My river bet is probably fairly thin on value, since I was pretty sure that he had unimproved overcards, most likely Big Slick, that he would likely toss to a river bet.

Indeed, given his rather weak play on the flop and turn, I did not think it was likely that he had TT/JJ/QQ/KK/AA. Consequently, I believed that the combined odds of his either calling with a worse hand or throwing away a better hand like 88/99 were greater than the odds of his calling or raising with a better hand. Moreover, since I could not imagine him bluff-raising me with a worse hand, I felt I could easily fold to a raise without wasting another bet.

However, since I did believe that it was very likely that he held unimproved overcards which he would either fold or check though, in the grand scheme of things it probably made little difference whether I bet the river or not.

[zamora]

i think that the probability of him folding a better hand in this spot is somewhere around 0%. if he is calling the turn w 88, he is also calling the river. unless he is a complete tool, of course.

i think a check call on the river could be a more profitable move here, since you could induce a bluff. but it is probably marginal.

well played hand.

btw, what would you have done if 2 or 3 players would have taken the turn?

[Saborion]

However, since I did believe that it was very likely that he held unimproved overcards which he would either fold or check though, in the grand scheme of things it probably made little difference whether I bet the river or not.

Unless your opponent usually raise pre with 99 and maybe 88, then I'd say it's way better to check that river. If he slowplayed pocket J's, T's, A's or whatever, then you will only lose 1 BB if he bets. If he's on overcards, then he will most likely fold.

I guess what it comes down to is:
1: Can he be induced to bluff HU if checked to on the river after you showed aggression with a c/r?
2: Will he call with unimproved overcards?
3: Will he raise pre-flop with 99 and possibly 88?

If he can call with unimproved overcards, but is not likely to try to a bluff if checked to, then betting is clearly better. If he has an underpair better than yours and have called all the way to the river, he will call that river bet as well.

To sumarize. Unless I've seen this player call down with A-high before, I'm not betting that river.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]

I guess what it comes down to is:
1: Can he be induced to bluff HU if checked to on the river after you showed aggression with a c/r?

[/ QUOTE ]

Since the flop was very uncoordinated (unless I had 45), my c/r should have looked more like a pocket pair or Jx than a draw, meaning that I can't see him taking a shot at me on the river with overcards.


[ QUOTE ]
2: Will he call with unimproved overcards?

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds are probably the same of him calling with overcards as they are of his bluffing at me...close to zero.


[ QUOTE ]
3: Will he raise pre-flop with 99 and possibly 88?

If he has an underpair better than yours and have called all the way to the river, he will call that river bet as well.


[/ QUOTE ]

This was a key factor for me. Although I had not been at the table for long, this player stuck me as a reasonably knowledgeable player, meaning that I saw it as somewhat possible that he could have 88/99. Furthermore, since he had been prone to complaning about losing to ridiculous hands, I thought he would be more likely than than the average Party 2/4 monkey to call a turn bet but throw his hand away on the river in this small pot if I bet, rather than be shown one more "ridiculous" hand that beats his hand.

All-in-all, however, I do agree that my river bet was probably slightly -EV.