AA with pair on board and betting galore

[Crumpled Ear]

Wendover, Rainbow Casino, 5/10 killpot

I have black Aces on the button. Table is real loose and passive except for CO and MP3 who tend to be aggressive.

Preflop: UTG calls, call, call, MP3 raises, CO reraises, I cap, blinds fold, the rest call.

Flop: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
UTG bets, fold, fold, MP3 raises, CO calls, I reraise, UTG caps, MP3 calls, CO calls, I call.

The pot is humungous and with all this action, especially from UTG, who is passive, I'm fairly convinced that he's got an 8. Based on preflop action, I'm also nagged with the possibility that someone's holding cowboys. Given this, I'm wondering whether it's worth drawing for one of those remaining Aces and would appreciate your input. In what situations, if any, do you draw for a set on the turn?

Turn: (8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG bets, MP3 raises (?), CO calls, I call and am feeling like a calling station but the pot is huge and beckons. UTG calls.

River: (8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 :diamond) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, MP3 bets, CO calls, I call, UTG calls.

[Crumpled Ear]

UTG has 89 suited--takes the pot with three 8's
MP3 has AK for a pair of K's
CO has KJ for pair of K's
I have AA and a bellyache

[Louie Landale]

On the turn I count 20BB in the pot and you need only 22:1 to draw if you SEE an 8 in UTGs hand and know the other two have no Ace. That's close enough to draw for ONE bet since you are sure to make up 4bb with a raise on the river when you make it.

So its close when its one bet. But when its 2-bets to you, you now need to figure that you will win the pot half the time when you do NOT improve. This means that nobody has an 8 and nobody outdraws you and nobody bluffs you half the time. Combine this with your correct deduction that the passive UTG probably has an 8 means you should fold for the turn raise.

Put your analysis to work.

- Louie