How long can you hold your breath?

[cero_z]

Hi Ulysses,
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Seems pretty obvious to me that he most likely had the As and rivered a pair.

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Not that it's that important, but I'd go with smaller Aces up as his most likely hand.

[Ulysses]

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He allready called!

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No. You said initially that one benefit of the 3-bet is that EP might fold a better hand to your 3-bet. I am saying that is incorrect and you want EP to call the 3-bet, not fold.

[citanul]

i don't understand the posters in this thread who think that any of the value in this river raise comes from the guy folding on the end.
this seems like a very clean value bet to me.
there are many hands that (especially bad) opponents will call with on the end here, and few hands that any opponent would have played this way that will beat david.
where does all the confusion come from?

citanul

[Ulysses]

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Not that it's that important, but I'd go with smaller Aces up as his most likely hand.

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Maybe, but I think two pair will usually make the crying call closing the action there. But I agree that something like As9 is a possibility.

[rigoletto]

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i don't understand the posters in this thread who think that any of the value in this river raise comes from the guy folding on the end.
this seems like a very clean value bet to me.
there are many hands that (especially bad) opponents will call with on the end here, and few hands that any opponent would have played this way that will beat david.
where does all the confusion come from?

citanul

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I think a lot of people misread the post and thought EP was faced with 2 bets.

[Senor Choppy]

I don't know what the odds are of him having a set or better given how passively he played AND him folding it to one more bet, but I'm guessing it's around 500-1. I think the odds of him having better than top two are worse than 20-1, and the same goes for him laying down a hand like this.

Using this as one of the main justifications for raising is not good IMO.

[1800GAMBLER]

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Maybe I misunderstand the concept of limping to keep the pot small, but I thought this was a prefect example of what Mason talks about. With a hand like AJo or AQo that you like less and less as you go deeper into the hand, you don't build the pot pre-flop so that you can make a raise on the flop that will drive out hands that otherwise have correct odds to chase on the big pot (gutshots, overcards etc).

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The reason postflop these hands are getting the odds to call comes from the mistake of them putting 2 bets in preflop. This isn't a big mistake when the players in the pot are tight and aren't playing total crap, but not raising in the 15/30 is bad because the players are playing total crap, J3s for example, meaning their mistake preflop is too big for you to miss out on for a higher win percentage postflop. Plus also the SB blind structure is a reason to raise.

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I raised the river because I couldn't imagine him having a hand that beat me and waiting to the river to raise.

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The buttons action of waiting to the river to raise is something i've saw at the 15/30 with a strong holding. He has UTG, EP and MP behind him and with the nut flush he may be wanting to keep them in. So that means when you 3 bet he caps. So you have to be good 2:1 here on the river (assuming EP gets out). Which you are because in the 15/30 game AQo A,xs will still there and make this raise even after the action on the other streets.

[rharless]

David,
I understand your confusion. I once cited this exact situation (not raising AQo, specifically) to Ed Miller as an illustration of how conflicting advice between 2+2ers and the books, can be hard to resolve.

Here is my understanding. The only reason to NOT raise preflop AJo is if the previous limpers are very tight and could have hands that are better than yours, or are only slightly worse than yours. In that situation, you do not have a significant advantage anyways, so you are giving up the small advantage in favor of pot size manipulation.

The limpers in front of you in Party 15-30 are usually not tight strong players. As such your AJo is quite possibly a much stronger favorite than their hands. You have more of a preflop advantage than in Mason's example. You are now "giving up more" to get the small benefit of pot size manipulation, and the bottom line is that you have given up too much preflop advantage against these players.

The key cause for the difference in Mason's advice and 2+2er advice is that Mason does not account as much for the terrible play of other opponents. Now, many 15-30 opponents are not terrible, so you might find more examples here versus other limits where limping might be right -- but they will still be uncommon situations at 15-30.

Add to that, you will probably get the button, and possibly get one or both blinds out (a raise is even more necessary when the SB is big enough that anyone will complete with any two)... all this swings it to the "raise" column. In fact I think with that SB this would "always" (never says always) be a 15-30 raise. I thought I'd write out my understanding though to help you for when you enter a different structured game.

[PDosterM]

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I can't come up with a hand that he would bet this way that beats me, so I 3 bet.

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It seems to me that if the button held A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], he played it nearly perfectly. With 6 probable calls and no raise, calling pre-flop seems right.

He wouldn’t want to re-raise the flop so as to keep as many of the players to his left in.

One might argue that the time for the button to raise with these holdings would be the turn, but I can certainly see waiting one more round.

What am I missing?