Nut flush on turn when you think full house made? Why Raise?

RED_RAIN · #1 05-09-2004, 11:16 PM

I'm not sure here. I think people would say I should raise here on turn so I can find out where I am. If he 3 bets me I could be in trouble, but since he capped flop, I think he has 2 pair or set. If he 3 bets me on turn, would I consider folding either there or to a bet on river? I doubt he will just call if he just has 2 pair so what am I gaining here? Or did I play this right [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players) 
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds, UTG raises, MP1 folds, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, UTG caps, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players) 
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (11.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players) 
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB
Main Pot: 14.50 BB, between UTG, Hero and SB. > Pot won by Hero (14.50 BB).

Results in white below: 
SB shows Kc 9c (flush, king high).
UTG shows Jh 5s (two pair, jacks and eights).
Hero shows Ac 4c (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins 14.50 BB.

TheRake · #2 05-09-2004, 11:37 PM

RR,

You can't know anything until you raise the turn. You can't even consider folding the nut flush unless the board double pairs or another 8 falls. Raise the turn and it's not close.

TheRake

RED_RAIN · #3 05-09-2004, 11:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
RR,

You can't know anything until you raise the turn. You can't even consider folding the nut flush unless the board double pairs or another 8 falls. Raise the turn and it's not close.

TheRake

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh I was not even consider folding. What I'm wondering is why raise the turn? I won't probably lay it down if he 3 bets me on the turn and bets into me on the river. So am I losing a value bet here or am I making out fine in the long run. And yes I would consider folding only if the board double pairs or lays down a set.

TheRake · #4 05-10-2004, 12:00 AM

I am just saying you can't always assume the worst. You just end up costing yourself money. This hand is a good example of that. you lost out on about 4-5bb. If you crash and burn so be it, but don't play scared.

TheRake

RED_RAIN · #5 05-10-2004, 12:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I am just saying you can't always assume the worst. You just end up costing yourself money. This hand is a good example of that. you lost out on about 4-5bb. If you crash and burn so be it, but don't play scared.

TheRake

[/ QUOTE ]

Not arguing that it might have been a weak play, but where do you think I lost 4-5 BBs? I see maybe 2 BBs at most against a non psycho but more than likely just one.

TheRake · #6 05-10-2004, 12:10 AM

Ahh...you're right...prolly 2 (forgot to subtract the ones you made), but it is still an hours work.

arfsananto · #7 05-10-2004, 07:45 AM

But it is also an hour's work to make up if you lose...
Could the answer here be in a difference in goals/playing styles?
My inclination here would have been to play this hand just as Hero did. My playing goal is to win as much as possible, but with as little variance as possible. I know that I am not as aggressive as most here, but that is by choice. Many want to push every edge, pick up every possible bet. But I think that also necessarily leads to higher variance.
My goal is to play a game which is, first, winning; then, with daily results as close to expected long-term results as possible. I would rather have smaller winning sessions in exchange for fewer/smaller losing sessions.

Joe Tall · #8 05-10-2004, 08:03 AM

Call the c/r on the flop.

Raise the turn.

Peace,
Joe Tall

easypete · #9 05-10-2004, 08:37 AM

You played the flop real aggressive (3-betting your 4-flush), but slowed down when you got the nut flush?

Hands that beat you on the turn:
J8 (6 remaining), 58 (6 remaining)

That's 12 possible hands out of 1326. = 0.9% chance of one player having it. P(not) = 99.1%^4 (4 others seeing it) = 96.4% chance that nobody has you beat.

Put in the factor that some players (even on the 0.5/1 tables) won't play a 85 or a J8, then you have a better chance. If I'm faced w/ this situation, I'm going to wear out the bet/raise button.

ZootMurph · #10 05-10-2004, 08:52 AM

I have to agree with TheRake here. The reason you played this hand was for the flush. You hit the flush, then become a calling station. OK, a pair of 8s came out. So, what full house did you think you might have been up against? JJ, 88, 55, J8, 58 are the only holdings that could have you beat. The only likely candidate would be 55 or 88, unless someone is playing J8 or 58 UTG, or playing JJ very passively preflop. I notice UTG DID play J5, so I guess J8 or 58 are possible.

The point is, there isn't much on the board to be afraid of. If there were 2 Jacks on board, I'd start being concerned, but I'm not generally concerned about 2 8s. To answer your subject "Nut flush on turn when you think full house made? Why Raise?", I don't think a full house was made, so I'd raise. Occassionally, you will be up against a full house, more often, you won't be.

That means a raise is +EV, and becoming a calling station is -EV. Say 4 out of 10 times you will be up against a full house (which is a bit high I think), and you raised, you'd get 2 more bets on the turn and 2 more on the river. That's a 20.5BB pot, where you put in 8.5BB. You win 12 BB 6 times, and lose 8.5 BB 4 times. 72BB - 34BB = 38BB, or 3.8BB EV for raising.

Finally, not raising is giving the 3 pair hand a chance to CATCH the full house. He has 6 outs (a 5, 8, or J). Make him pay for trying to catch it. Just some things to consider...