50-100 - Is having a third nut good?

[Pipedream]

Ok folks, I'm not sure when this turned into a preflop debate. Not raising two Tens from EP in this game is pretty Special Olympics. I even raised 88 and ATs from utg. Like Clark said, I'll gladly let some corndogs pay 2 bets when I'm holding a great hand like Tens. Even if the whole table said, "hey, we're all going to call you if you raise here", I'de still raise it. It's my opinion that the people who opt not to raise with JJ or TT first in or after several limpers probably don't play postflop very well(and I guess preflop too). They have so much fear of that elusive overcard flopping that they choose to leave many bets on the table when they have the best of it.

Pipedream

[sleepyjoeyt]

I'm mostly a lurker and enjoy reading other's opinions, but I thought this last post was perfect.

[Gamblor]

Let's examine the kinds of hands that will cold-call your raise in this game, with position.

Keep in mind that some, if not all, play well post-flop.

Twodimes says:

pokenum -h td th - as js - kc qd - qc tc - 8s 8h
Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Td Th 150160 17.65 692055 81.35 8453 0.99 0.181
As Js 276922 32.55 571894 67.23 1852 0.22 0.326
Kc Qd 182946 21.51 661426 77.75 6296 0.74 0.218
Qc Tc 78418 9.22 759353 89.27 12897 1.52 0.099
8s 8h 149325 17.55 699491 82.23 1852 0.22 0.176

You are getting 4.5-1 to make this raise (against 4 opponents, plus the SB).

Yet, you're only getting 0.181, which translates to about 5.5-1 to win the hand.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[Ulysses]

Change QcTc to QcJc and that 18% jumps to 25%. Giving one of your opponents a Ten has a huge impact on this sim.

[Luke]

[ QUOTE ]
Twodimes says:

pokenum -h td th - as js - kc qd - qc tc - 8s 8h
Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Td Th 150160 17.65 692055 81.35 8453 0.99 0.181
As Js 276922 32.55 571894 67.23 1852 0.22 0.326
Kc Qd 182946 21.51 661426 77.75 6296 0.74 0.218
Qc Tc 78418 9.22 759353 89.27 12897 1.52 0.099
8s 8h 149325 17.55 699491 82.23 1852 0.22 0.176


[/ QUOTE ]

C'mon. How often will you get tens and 4 players at your table will have hands this good? It's just not happening very often. If the opponents in the game are only cold calling with hands this good, then you don't have to worry about playing a 5-way pot when raising TT because it will very RARELY happen.

Here's a sim with 2 of your opponents cold calling with 2 good hands:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=289275
pokenum -h ts td - ac 9c - ks qh
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Td 516653 37.69 850951 62.08 3150 0.23 0.378
Ac 9c 425067 31.01 942537 68.76 3150 0.23 0.311
Ks Qh 425884 31.07 941720 68.70 3150 0.23 0.311

That's not great for TT, but you still have better than your share of pot equity.

If I make one of the cold callers have an underpair, TT does a bit better:

pokenum -h ts td - ac jc - 7s 7h
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Td 586625 42.80 781395 57.00 2734 0.20 0.429
Ac Jc 535556 39.07 832464 60.73 2734 0.20 0.391
7s 7h 245839 17.93 1122181 81.87 2734 0.20 0.180

And here you have 4 opponents calling with 4 reasonable hands:

pokenum -h ts td - ac 9c - ks qh - 5s 5c - 8s 6s
Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Td 225242 26.48 624623 73.43 803 0.09 0.265
Ac 9c 193657 22.77 656208 77.14 803 0.09 0.228
Ks Qh 188050 22.11 661815 77.80 803 0.09 0.221
5s 5c 132295 15.55 717570 84.35 803 0.09 0.156
8s 6s 110621 13.00 739244 86.90 803 0.09 0.130


If your opponents are playing reasonably and 4 of them are calling your EP raise preflop, then these hands are a closer representation to what they might have than your sim. I actually think your opponents may have worse cards if you are consistently seeing 5 way raised pots, but I don't need to make the hands any worse and TT still has strong pot equity.

Of course, this boils down to me thinking raising TT in EP is the play in almost any game.

Luke

[Ulysses]

Luke's post is right on the money wrt what kind of hands people need to be calling w/ if you're routinely seeing 5-way pots w/ UTG raises.