Bottom-set in unraised pot: plan for turn / river ?

[Wardfish]

UB 5/10 NLHE, 10-handed

Pre-flop: EP limper, I limp in MP with 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], BB checks (3 players)

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - check, check, I bet $40, BB calls (2 players)

Turn: (Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] rainbow - check, I bet $60, BB raises to $400

(Action / results to follow....)

Background:
BB starts the hand with about 950, I have 1950.
We have both been playing a solid game. (There was a maniac, who has just busted out and as usual, the table took it in turns to play him.)

Without much of a read on the opponent's play (other than solid), what is your plan for the turn and river?

My plan was to not give a free card, but what about my bet size?

What range of hands might I put my opponent on?

[Richie Rich]

Let's see. You bet slightly bigger than the pot on the flop, but only half the pot on the turn when the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] fell. Your first bet was good, your second one weak.

Now a couple of things are going through my mind... (1) your opponent has J10 and just caught the gutshot straight draw, (2) your opponent has 89 and now has two pair, (3) he might have a higher set, perhaps a set of 9s, but that isn't very likely, (4) your opponent senses weakness and wants to push you out of this pot, even though he's only holding a pair.

A more important question is, "how do you think your opponent evaluates you?" If he thinks you're weak-tight, then I think it's more likely he's trying to push you out of this pot. If so, then you have to go all-in. If you think he probably has you beat, then you fold. Calling would definitely be the worst option, since he's likely to go all-in on the river anyways.

[schwza]

I would bet more on the turn. Given your bet and his raise, I'd push. This hand is too good and still too well-disguised to fold, and I don't want to let him draw for free with a call if he has 2 clubs or a ten. And if you're going to reraise, even a min-reraise will put him basically all-in, so just push. My two cents...

[Garland]

A set of QQ is unlikely as he would probably raise with 2 opponents, but who knows. Other sets I would pretty much discount.

It looks awfully like he has 2 pair on the flop or turn. Barring that, he has a flush or straight draw and is trying to scare you off the pot. I'd push here and not give up a free card.

There's a chance he has J10 for the nuts and peeled off an expensive card. If that's true, so be it. You still have outs.

I think the turn bet was on the low side as you're almost giving odds (and perhaps are giving odds if he has both a straight and flush draw). I would bet toward the pot (pot is $110, so I would bet $90->$100).

Garland

[Huskiez]

As mentioned by other posters, I think you should bet more on the turn. This ensures the BB won't seize the opportunity to be tricky, and charges him for what is most likely a draw. Good plan of not giving a free card, but the bet size is definitely not enough. Betting around the pot is a usually a good sized bet.

The most likely hand I would put him on is two pair (esp a slowplayed Q8 or turned Q9 or 98). A flush draw or straight draw would unlikely go for the check raise unless he thought you capable of folding your hand, especially when given a cheap amount to draw. With QQ he probably would have raised preflop. 99 or 88 are more likely. JT is possible but you're not drawing as dead against that as 99 or 88. All in all I think he'll have two pair or a draw often enough to make a push the most profitable option.

[MVicuna]

Hi,

You say he's solid, but how tricky is he? So what hands does he call a pot sized bet out of position with in a full game with an EP limper to act behind him?

Maybe not top pair, he'd have probably CR on the flop or lead out.

Maybe two pair? On a very draw empty board he can smooth call hoping to get EP to come along with little risk and then check raise on the turn.

a set? Again, its a draw empty board and QQ is not likely given the lack of PF raises. You could play a set 3 handed slowly and not be to worried.

I'd say he has Q8/Q4/Q9/Qx probably half of the time if not more. He'll have 88 1/4 the time and QQ 1/10 times. The rest of the time he'll have JT/99 and you put him down as someone you must play against. If he'll call pot sized bets with 2-4 outers out of position.

I think most of the time your way ahead. The only caveat is I'm used to playing 50xBB buyins. So very deep stacks is not my forte. So maybe calling down is the better solution. The only problem in my mind is he's basicly pot stuck given his check-raise. If he's solid why get pot stuck with a weak holding like 1 pair? I'm very concerned he has you beaten, but not enough to make me think you should fold. I'm going to pay him off personally. Its going to sting because that big CR and then big bet on the river is going to be half my stack, but you can't go folding to every CR when you have bottom set in a 3 handed pot unless you play with that guy daily and know exactly what hands he plays this way.

MArkV.

[zeero3]

Something similar has happened to me. I'm SB and all fold to the player to my right. He LIMPS IN!!! For some reason I sense super strength. I also LIMP IN with pocket nines thinking if I hit my 9 I got him. 3 players (to my right, myself, and BB to my left). Flop comes 9 Q K. Player to my right (limpy) goes all-in. NL homegame. I pondered it, put him on QQ, but for a split-second put him on QK. It turns out my mouth betrayed me for that split-second and I called. He in fact had two ladies in the pocket. The queen curse lives on!!!!

[MVicuna]

Hi,

Could you clarify your suggesting betting the pot on the flop and turn? In games where people will still have 10x the pot on the flop behind, its an easy way to get stacked off on the turn due to implied odds.

Thanks,
MarkV.

[Wardfish]

Thanks for all your responses fellas.

I agree that the turn bet was weak, and this was a contributing factor in my decision to put him all in on the flop. In other words, I had invited him (unwittingly) to make a play at the pot.

I agree that there are plenty of hands I can beat given the circumstances (weak turn bet) and fully expected to see Q8, Q4, A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]or Q9 when he called my all-in bet.

If I had bet the size of the pot on the turn, and he check-raises big, this probably increases the chances of me folding as I have shown strength on the flop AND the turn - no mixed messages here.

The bad news is he had JT for the nuts and the board did not pair.

Bottom line is: the decision was made tougher by the weak turn bet.

[The Gift Of Gab]

Last night I wrote a long response to this, which my computer ate. I was trying to figure out why he would raise to exactly 400 - I mean, it doesn't look like you're in love with your hand, does it? A pot-sized raise should blast you out, and most people just click the 'bet pot' button. Then I realized that 400 is the amount he would think he needed to make to retrospectively justify a call with a gutshot on the flop.

Since pot-sized bets are so common in that game, the aggressive players often attack weak-looking underbets.I would have bet the pot on the turn but might well have gone broke either way.

Now I'm curious: who are you and who was your opponent? I've been playing that game a lot recently, so we might have played together. Drop me a PM if you feel like it.