Fold nut flush draw?

[THE OUTLAW]

Thanks for the input. I realize now that it was quite possibly a bad fold. But I do not think that it was a "horrible" fold as some have said. One other thing that I did not mention in my original post was that my cold call would not have ended the betting on the turn. The BB (original bettor on both the flop and turn) was still to act. This could end up being a $40 call.

My reads in this hand were pretty much right on. The button had QXh, the turn raiser had a straight, and the BB had two pair.

My turn check after checkraising the flop did give my hand away as the button told me afterwards he figured I had a bigger flush draw. He coldcalled the 20$ on the turn anyways because he also had the straight draw.

As far as checkraising the flop and then checking the turn. The 10o was an ugly card, I wouldve bet out if a bad card came off. I dont think this is a bad play at all.

THE OUTLAW

[bernie]

The only time id think to fold this is

A: if the board is paired.
B: I have one flush card and it's a 3 flush board and i think someone 'already has it'. Even then id have to figure someone else also has some flush card outs. I posted long ago about a nut draw i folded on the turn without a paired board. It was 2 bets to me, i 'knew' both bettors had a flush, plus a guy on my right who folded, folded the 2nd nut draw. That was 5 outs gone. But my read was very, very strong on the bettors. I can count on 1 hand, with fingers left over, how many times ive folded that.

Even with those criteria above, id call if i wasnt sure. Your read better be damn good here.

If someone else also has 2 flush cards, but the flush isnt there yet, he will pay you off if you hit. Sometimes for 2 bets.

[ QUOTE ]
At least one of them will fill up my opponents

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not convinced anyone has a set here yet. More likely a str8 against a top pair.

No way im folding here. Youd have to pry it out of my cold dead hands.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
But I do not think that it was a "horrible" fold as some have said

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, it was a horrible fold.

Id even have called a small flush in this spot. Players will cold call with all kinds of crap in this spot. Im not too quick to put them on a higher flush draw just because they coldcall. Player depending.

If you're willing to fold a nut draw here, it indicates youd likely fold a smaller flush draw pretty easily here. That can cost you lots of chips.

b

[pudley4]

Here's what you faced, which is close to your worst-case scenario:

Opp 1: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Opp 2: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Opp 3: J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

You are up against a made straight, another flush draw, and 2 pair. You have 6 outs to win.

Scenario 1: Turn capped, only one opponent pays you off on the river.

If the turn is capped, with all 3 opponents calling - You spent 4 BB to win 18 (6 BB in the pot before the turn, 12 BB from your opponents on the turn).


33 times you don't hit a heart on the river and fold. No extra cost. Total cost: -4BB (turn) * 33 times = net -132BB

One time you hit the T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the river. You bet and get raised and lose. -2BB (riv) - 4BB (turn) = net -6BB

6 times you hit a winner on the river, bet and get only the other flush to call. [+1BB (riv) + 18BB] * 6 = +114BB net.

114-132-6= -24BB, or -.6 BB/hand.

Scenario 2: The turn is 3bet, and 2 opponents pay you off on the river. Similar calculations show a net of -2BB (-.05BB/hand).

Scenario 3: Only 2 bets on the turn and all 3 opponents pay you off. The net is +20BB (+.5BB/hand).

The most likely scenario falls somewhere between 2 and 3, making this a close-to-neutral EV decision.

Keep in mind that if you are not up against a straight on the turn, it's less likely the turn will be capped. Also, if you're not up against another flush draw, you have 2 more outs to win. Also, if you're not up against 2 pair, another of your non-outs turns into a winner. Basically, the vast majority of scenarios will be better than the one you faced, which is pretty close to 0 EV.

All of this means it was a bad fold.

[harboral]

You only needed to post your first paragraph. Once you got to "I fold my nut flush draw, knowing I am getting the proper odds" I was done reading. If this is how you play you might as well give up poker, IMHO.

[Homer]

I just didnt feel right calling

It sounds like you stopped thinking in terms of odds/bets and started thinking in terms of money ("oh [censored], two bets cold, that's 20 bucks!"). Were you by any chance playing this limit for the first time? How big is your bankroll?

-- Homer

[tripdad]

[ QUOTE ]
If this is how you play you might as well give up poker, IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

ouch! no "welcome to the forum"? just give up, eh? that's just wrong on many many levels, dude. you must be some sort of a damn genius or something, i guess.

booooooooo! hissssss!

[tripdad]

jackpot, homer. this was my first thought when i read it.

rule 1: don't play with scared money.

cheers!

[mikeyvegas]

Very good post! I was about to reply with something similar to this. Sometimes you just have to look at the math.

[ QUOTE ]
Here's what you faced, which is close to your worst-case scenario:

Opp 1: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Opp 2: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Opp 3: J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

You are up against a made straight, another flush draw, and 2 pair. You have 6 outs to win.

Scenario 1: Turn capped, only one opponent pays you off on the river.

If the turn is capped, with all 3 opponents calling - You spent 4 BB to win 18 (6 BB in the pot before the turn, 12 BB from your opponents on the turn).


33 times you don't hit a heart on the river and fold. No extra cost. Total cost: -4BB (turn) * 33 times = net -132BB

One time you hit the T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the river. You bet and get raised and lose. -2BB (riv) - 4BB (turn) = net -6BB

6 times you hit a winner on the river, bet and get only the other flush to call. [+1BB (riv) + 18BB] * 6 = +114BB net.

114-132-6= -24BB, or -.6 BB/hand.

Scenario 2: The turn is 3bet, and 2 opponents pay you off on the river. Similar calculations show a net of -2BB (-.05BB/hand).

Scenario 3: Only 2 bets on the turn and all 3 opponents pay you off. The net is +20BB (+.5BB/hand).

The most likely scenario falls somewhere between 2 and 3, making this a close-to-neutral EV decision.

Keep in mind that if you are not up against a straight on the turn, it's less likely the turn will be capped. Also, if you're not up against another flush draw, you have 2 more outs to win. Also, if you're not up against 2 pair, another of your non-outs turns into a winner. Basically, the vast majority of scenarios will be better than the one you faced, which is pretty close to 0 EV.

All of this means it was a bad fold.



[/ QUOTE ]

[bernie]

Great question homer. I didnt think of that, yet it is very common when players move up or are a little tight moneywise.

b