#11
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Re: Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me
Do what you can to just call on the flop, then raise 2 guys on the turn. I think I lay down a couple kings here, expecting to see aces a bazillion percent of the time.
~D |
#12
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Re: Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me
I call (contrary to Clarkmeister, calling has got to be better than folding). There is no way I am folding to a strong player who could be raising overcards or a big draw. I don't see the value in knocking out the weak player with a three bet. Also, if Dynasty four-bets, I am going to have to pay it off, and there are a lot of scare cards that can come on the river that are going to turn this into a payoff hand.
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#13
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Re: Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me
Well if hero knows you even a little bit he folds this hand on the turn to your raise. He probably knows that you wouldn't make it 3 bets to his initial raise preflop with anything less that AA-JJ,AK and maybe TT. At least that would be my read if I was hero. There is also a weak player in between you two, meaning there is much less chance you're making a semi bluff play because of 'implicit collusion'. I would read you for a pair larger than mine and muck.
Pipedream |
#14
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Re: Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me
With the calls station stuck between us it unlikely you are making a move at this pot as you are likely holiding a higher overpair.
The only hand I think I can beat is TT and I fold. Peace, Joe Tall |
#15
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Re: Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me
Clark,
I 3-bet. Calling has to be the worst of the options. I agree that calling is the worst option. However, what do you put Dynasty on that you are ahead. Precisely TT? Maybe, but doubtful, 88? Thanks, Joe Tall |
#16
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Re: Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me
It's close between calling and folding. I'd like someone to explain how 3-betting out of position here can possibly be better than calling.
Edit: If he was weak-tight, I can see the possible advantage of 3-betting to get him to fold something like QQ. But since he's been described as weak-loose, and he has certainly played the hand like a calling station, I don't see him folding the best hand. |
#17
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Re: Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me
[ QUOTE ]
there are only 12.25 BB's in the pot... I would estimate there is only a 10% [/ QUOTE ] Only? Huh? And (stipulating same) what is 10% of 12.25? |
#18
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Re: Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me
Hi shemp,
[ QUOTE ] Only? Huh? And (stipulating same) what is 10% of 12.25? [/ QUOTE ] Is my math off? He's getting 12.25 to 1 on his turn call. He's 22-1 to spike a Jack. That's too big a gap if he's only good here 10% of the time, even factoring in Loosey's actions and his implied odds when hitting his Jack. Not to mention he could lose to a redraw on the river. Correct? Regards, Jamie |
#19
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Re: Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me
Hello China,
[ QUOTE ] Right, but do you think he would play AA-QQ the way he describes? [/ QUOTE ] I think it's a heck of a lot more likely he waited til the turn to put pressure on MP and loosey with AA-QQ than 88,10-10. And if I'm wrong I would stongly recommend against waiting til the turn with 88 or 10-10. Dynasty's best chance of winning the hand if he's ahead would be to make MP face 2 cold on the flop with his overcards. What I think is more interesting is if Dynasty would play Ak/q of clubs this way. But as far as meta-game considerations he won't get MP to fold a better hand to him for the next month if he shows down 10-10, 88, Ak/q here. Which is fine, Dynasty would just have to make a strategy adjustment. Regards, Jamie |
#20
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Re: Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me
Dynasty - I'm answering before reading what anyone else says. I've never played with you but read plenty of your posts. Seems you most likely have a pair bigger than JJ or A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Some possibility you have TT or 99 but I find those less likely. Hard for me to do anything other than go into check-call mode. I realize I could be giving you a draw to an A or K but given my position I just can't see the value in being more aggressive here.
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