Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me

[Jamie Collins]

Hi shemp,

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Only? Huh? And (stipulating same) what is 10% of 12.25?

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Is my math off?

He's getting 12.25 to 1 on his turn call. He's 22-1 to spike a Jack.

That's too big a gap if he's only good here 10% of the time, even factoring in Loosey's actions and his implied odds when hitting his Jack. Not to mention he could lose to a redraw on the river. Correct?

Regards,
Jamie

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi shemp,

[ QUOTE ]
Only? Huh? And (stipulating same) what is 10% of 12.25?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is my math off?

He's getting 12.25 to 1 on his turn call. He's 22-1 to spike a Jack.

That's too big a gap if he's only good here 10% of the time, even factoring in Loosey's actions and his implied odds when hitting his Jack. Not to mention he could lose to a redraw on the river. Correct?

Regards,
Jamie

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're good 10% of the time, you only need 9:1 to call to break even. (Not even counting the small redraw to the J)

[Jamie Collins]

Thanks for the reply SossMan,
Help me out on the math.

Let's make this as simple for me as possible by calculating just the pot odds for the turn only and assume loosey folds.

1 time in ten he will win 12.25

and 9 times in ten he will donate 1 BB each time - I'm assuming that's where the 9:1 comes from.

Ok I think I was making it too difficult on myself.
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Now if you factor in loosey's call of Dynasty's raise, even better odds right? However, which is greater: the odds of JJ getting drawn out on the river if he's ahead or his implied odds if he's behind and spikes a J?

My guess is even if the former is greater than the latter it's not enough to compensate for the 3.25 (12.25-9) overlay.

I'll leave the math posts to the smart guys!

Regards,
Jamie