Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me

[Jamie Collins]

Hello Dynasty,
I would take the Jim Brier line on this one:

I would fold. If I'm ahead with JJ there are a lot of cards that could make the loose player's hand or your hand on the river. And it doesn't seem very likely you would play AQ/AK/10-10/8-8 this way. If I'm behind I'm drawing pretty slim and there are only 12.25 BB's in the pot if I added correctly. I would estimate there is only a 10% chance JJ is good here, unless you're a lot looser than I thought.

Regards,
Jamie

[China Willy]

Right, but do you think he would play AA-QQ the way he describes? Especially not QQ, given that he would want to drive out AK if the solid initial raiser holds overcards. I think Dynasty has narrowed the other fella's hand to TT or JJ or QQ and he *either* has AA *or* is trying to get heads up against the weak player with a worse hand than JJ.

I think its the latter.

-CW

[Jamie Collins]

Hello China,

[ QUOTE ]
Right, but do you think he would play AA-QQ the way he describes?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's a heck of a lot more likely he waited til the turn to put pressure on MP and loosey with AA-QQ than 88,10-10. And if I'm wrong I would stongly recommend against waiting til the turn with 88 or 10-10. Dynasty's best chance of winning the hand if he's ahead would be to make MP face 2 cold on the flop with his overcards.

What I think is more interesting is if Dynasty would play Ak/q of clubs this way.

But as far as meta-game considerations he won't get MP to fold a better hand to him for the next month if he shows down 10-10, 88, Ak/q here. Which is fine, Dynasty would just have to make a strategy adjustment.

Regards,
Jamie

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]
there are only 12.25 BB's in the pot... I would estimate there is only a 10%

[/ QUOTE ]

Only? Huh? And (stipulating same) what is 10% of 12.25?

[Jamie Collins]

Hi shemp,

[ QUOTE ]
Only? Huh? And (stipulating same) what is 10% of 12.25?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is my math off?

He's getting 12.25 to 1 on his turn call. He's 22-1 to spike a Jack.

That's too big a gap if he's only good here 10% of the time, even factoring in Loosey's actions and his implied odds when hitting his Jack. Not to mention he could lose to a redraw on the river. Correct?

Regards,
Jamie

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi shemp,

[ QUOTE ]
Only? Huh? And (stipulating same) what is 10% of 12.25?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is my math off?

He's getting 12.25 to 1 on his turn call. He's 22-1 to spike a Jack.

That's too big a gap if he's only good here 10% of the time, even factoring in Loosey's actions and his implied odds when hitting his Jack. Not to mention he could lose to a redraw on the river. Correct?

Regards,
Jamie

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're good 10% of the time, you only need 9:1 to call to break even. (Not even counting the small redraw to the J)

[Jamie Collins]

Thanks for the reply SossMan,
Help me out on the math.

Let's make this as simple for me as possible by calculating just the pot odds for the turn only and assume loosey folds.

1 time in ten he will win 12.25

and 9 times in ten he will donate 1 BB each time - I'm assuming that's where the 9:1 comes from.

Ok I think I was making it too difficult on myself.
-------------

Now if you factor in loosey's call of Dynasty's raise, even better odds right? However, which is greater: the odds of JJ getting drawn out on the river if he's ahead or his implied odds if he's behind and spikes a J?

My guess is even if the former is greater than the latter it's not enough to compensate for the 3.25 (12.25-9) overlay.

I'll leave the math posts to the smart guys!

Regards,
Jamie

[DcifrThs]

shemp,

read my post. 8:1 effective odds on the call down. 10% he thought his hand was good. thats 10/100 1/10 or 9:1. not enough.
-Barron