Botched AA?

[Jamie Collins]

Eric,
I'd be interested to know how many players would fold the turn here. Most players would probably play it better so as to not put themselves in this position but dems da breaks.

-----------------

I'm not a math guy but let me give it a shot. After the turn cr the pot is laying me 15.5 to 2 to call or 7.75 to 1.
It's 22-1 to spike an Ace. However, he may have a six. In that case 2 nines are also outs. I think a nine is a little more likely but we'll say it's 50/50 he has a 9 or a six. So we'll add one more out to lower my odds of spiking a winner to 14.67 to 1.

So in order to make the call profitable I need to lower my effective odds to 7.75, Is that right?

And I can do that by my hand being good a certain percentage of the time right? 14.667 x .53 ~ 7.75

Meaning 53% of the time I need the Ace and 47% of the time I'm good. I think being good here 47% of the time is a big stretch.

However, Button will probably call the turn cr making my call 8.25 to 1. 14.667 x .56 ~ 8.25
So I need to be good 44% of the time?

Now I must factor in implied odds if I hit my Ace?
and they won't both fold if the river comes an Ace so that means there are positive implied odds right? It will probably go SB bets I raise, button folds and SB calls. So that means I can add the Small Blind's 2 more BB's to my pot odds on the turn right? Making it 14.667 x .7 ~ 10.25

So I need to be good here 30% of the time. Before I started this post I estimated my chance of being good here at 15%-30%. And I like to factor in maybe 1 more BB in to the turn pot and call it a 'Peace of Mind' BB for those big pots.

So assuming my math is right (which is highly unlikely) it's looks to be close. Thoughts? Corrections?

---------------------
Of course I didn't factor in quad sixes or nines.
My head hurts.

Regards,
Jamie

[Senor Choppy]

You lost me with some of those numbers.

If the 7.75-1 is accurate (too lazy to look at the numbers of your original post), assuming you had no outs if behind you need to be good only once in 8.75 hands. A 9 might be an out, but you might be against quads too. The likelihood of this probably cancels out whatever the 9s might be worth as outs. You have 2 aces that are probably good, and you're getting 22.5-1 to spike one (assuming your opponent has one 9 or one 6 in his hand). Your real odds on the turn are about 6.75-1 since you're calling the river regardless. You're going to be able to get in a raise (or 2) on the turn if you hit and ace and will only lose 1 bet on the river if you don't, so let's make your effective odds on the turn 7.5-1.

You need to win 1 in 8.5 hands to be able to call. You're going to hit an ace when behind 1 in 23.5 hands. If you look at 799 hands, you need to win 94 (1 in 8.5) to break even. You're going to hit an ace to win 34 times, so you need to be good the other 60 times, which works out to around 1 in 13-14 times, or only 7-8% of the time. (You're going to hit an ace when you don't need it occasionally, but that doesn't affect the results by more than a fraction of a percent).

I think you're easily going to win here 10% of the time so I don't think this one's close.

[Jamie Collins]

SB turned over A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for the board with Ace kicker. I win with AA. Button's hand is auto-mucked.

I believe in hindsight that with 20 SB's in the pot preflop that I shouldn't slowplay with 5 people in and let someone catch runner-runner. I think the best way to achieve that is to lead bet the flop, let button raise her likely overpair and get it headsup. We'll probably get another cold-caller anyway, which isn't terrible.

Thoughts about any part of the hand?

Regards,
Jamie