Need a poker sim and curious how you'd play this

[Matt Flynn]

$5-10 PLHE seven-handed. I have $2,000; opponent has $1,400. Opponent is wild but his game tailors to six-handed well.

He raises the pot on my blind for the umpteenth time. I have folded KQo twice in the SB, just biding my time and letting him stick his neck out for a little nickel while the wild bunch calls him. This time I have AsKs in the BB. I like calling with that hand out of position in a raised pot. All sorts of good things happen. But here it's time to punish the raise-happy camper. Pot. Two see the flop of QcTs9s. I have nut flush draw, gutshot straight draw and two overcards. Pot's $445. The lesser stack is $1,200.

I check-raise him all-in. He has JJ without the spade. Turn is the Js. He has nine outs. River's the Kh. My pot.

So, first, can someone sim that for me and tell me where I was? I have it intuitively around 45% for me.

Second, if there had been bigger stacks and it was NL, my play is definitely to check-raise huge. Here with the small stacks relative to the pot it doesn't seem to matter much except when he's got an underpair. Anybody just lead out?

Matt

[Acesover8s]

On the flop you have 46% equity, on the turn you have 79% equity.

Check out www.twodimes.net/poker or www.pokerstove.com

I think your play is obviously correct in this hand. I think your opponents play is a touch more suspect.

[Matt Flynn]

Thanks! Slick little program from Andrew Prock, whose posts are always worth reading. The link on unsuited connectors in limit holdem really is an eye-opener as I would typically call a raise with them from the BB with 5 other players in and no expected action behind, clearly a losing proposition. Excellent. Now I can fold more blind hands.

Matt

[limon]

[ZeroGee]

Why lead out? You know this guy is going to bet. You're looking at big hand potential here -- straight or flush. You're not even all that worried if he has KK. He's going to call your check-raise here if he has anything, because he's an action player. If he had crap and was raising, he would have folded, allowing you to have claimed some of his bluffed-off chips. I think this is the _only_ way to play this.

[ML4L]

Hey Matt,

I agree with others; the check-raise on the flop is mandatory. Off the top of my head:

1) He might check behind and give you a free card.

2) He might fold a better hand to your check-raise that he would not fold to a bet (although the prime example of that would be a hand like JJ, and he didn't lay that down).

3) You want all of the money in the middle with two cards to come rather than just one.

4) If you lead out and get called, you are up a creek on the turn if you don't improve.

5) If he has an underpair, you may induce a bluff where he would not have called.

I think I thought of more stuff earlier, but I can't really remember it now. Five is sufficient, especially since you knew it was the correct play anyway...

Nice hand.

Mike