Theoretical Question

Diplomat · #1 04-19-2004, 04:37 PM

You are playing a WSOP final event qualifier that gives seats to the top 11-finishers. There are currently 6 players on your table, and 6 players on the other table.

Your stack is currently the smallest on your table to the point where it is highly unlikely that anyone else but you will be eliminated from your table. You currently have 6200 TC, and the blinds are 750-1500.

On the other table, the big blind has a stack of 6000 TC after posting the big blind. UTG has a stack of 5000 TC. The next player is deep-stacked, as is the next player. The button has 3200 TC. The small blind is also deep-stacked.

You are on the button with XX. On the other table, UTG goes all-in and it is folded to the big blind, who is stalling, and has more time than you to make a decision, dude to your table folding to you faster.

What is the minimum hand that XX can be for you to play? Assume if you play you will go all-in, and very likely will be called, as the small blind and big blind are very deeply stacked.

-Diplomat

Mackie · #2 04-19-2004, 04:44 PM

What is the minimum hand that XX can be for you to play?

Two Jokers.

SossMan · #3 04-19-2004, 04:49 PM

I'm not playing anything here. It is very likely that someone else will bust before you. You have position, and three players who will be forced to play before you. If one or two of the others double up, then you may be forced to make some moves, but until then...I'm not playing anything. This is especially true because UTG is allin on the other table. The other BB is likely waiting to see if you make a move before calling the UTG.

Kurn, son of Mogh · #4 04-19-2004, 04:50 PM

I'm folding everything but AA or KK. The short stack on the other table blinds off before I do and with his stack being half mine, he's more likely to get called when he does play.

Diplomat · #5 04-19-2004, 05:51 PM

I thought this one was pretty easy too. I folded tens, and it felt fine. I'd wonder about QQ though.

-Diplomat

sawil · #6 04-19-2004, 10:52 PM

Top eleven get seat ... 12 th get a big cash prize? Even if they did, if winning a seat is your goal, then you must fold every hand esp. with so many shorter stacks. Did you make it?

Greg (FossilMan) · #7 04-19-2004, 11:00 PM

I like Mackie's answer here, two jokers (i.e., wild cards). Even with AA, you are going to lose something like 15% of the time. On the other hand, you have 3 short stacks out of 6 at the other table, and two of them MUST play and win a hand or they will bust out before you do. I think the chances of you winning a seat by folding every hand from here on out is greater than the chances of your AA holding up, if you had AA. Thus, even AA can be folded here.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

curtains · #8 04-20-2004, 12:54 AM

AA should lose much less than 15%, since its unlikely you will even get a call.

Diplomat · #9 04-20-2004, 01:16 AM

Given that my opponents have almost nothing to lose by calling (3 chances to eliminate the last player on the other table) and everything to gain (end of tournament) they should call with a wide range of hands, even if they are very sure I have a large pair.

-Diplomat

Greg (FossilMan) · #10 04-20-2004, 08:33 AM

The original post said "Assume if you play you will go all-in, and very likely will be called". I went with that.

And if they truly have huge stacks, then they might call frequently, even though they probably shouldn't since there chances of winning a seat by folding every hand are pretty huge right now, given the 3 short stacks on the other table.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)