#1
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Party Board Cards
Here is some raw data. It is about 230k hands (about 50k more hands than the other data).
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>card count_flop1 count_flop2 count_flop3 count_turn count_river 2c 4051 4076 4105 3401 2810 2d 4131 4054 3935 3382 2851 2h 4081 4022 4055 3445 2816 2s 3946 4006 4057 3246 2754 3c 4063 4099 4001 3349 2764 3d 4148 3965 4114 3364 2659 3h 4081 4045 3967 3257 2673 3s 4066 3916 3999 3445 2598 4c 4076 4041 4138 3402 2767 4d 4063 4064 4164 3369 2642 4h 3965 4029 4096 3400 2666 4s 4056 4022 4052 3407 2731 5c 4019 3990 3974 3301 2601 5d 3997 4029 3943 3398 2743 5h 4094 4070 4069 3273 2683 5s 4019 4131 4107 3355 2736 6c 4015 3947 4162 3356 2787 6d 4033 4105 4028 3272 2651 6h 3970 3990 4045 3413 2731 6s 4061 4073 4083 3361 2722 7c 4045 4087 4058 3341 2793 7d 4052 4095 3999 3359 2664 7h 3860 3927 3982 3435 2644 7s 4010 3941 3953 3369 2643 8c 4012 4136 4009 3327 2731 8d 3973 4008 4021 3380 2803 8h 4110 4061 3967 3349 2645 8s 4063 4062 4054 3386 2672 9c 4075 4061 4036 3330 2675 9d 4012 4042 4031 3297 2699 9h 3999 4009 4022 3237 2744 9s 3965 4093 4038 3284 2706 Tc 3975 3984 4086 3263 2571 Td 4091 4160 3999 3251 2628 Th 4158 4042 3998 3386 2665 Ts 3938 4031 3913 3389 2702 Jc 3938 3952 3981 3363 2721 Jd 3915 4055 3996 3234 2665 Jh 4028 3979 3943 3227 2656 Js 4053 4050 3884 3319 2681 Qc 4089 3944 3955 3255 2621 Qd 3976 3987 4084 3218 2666 Qh 4092 4056 4062 3292 2649 Qs 4111 3971 4068 3281 2735 Kc 4049 3976 3961 3342 2587 Kd 4108 3978 3982 3354 2704 Kh 3992 4039 4116 3346 2688 Ks 3888 4025 3950 3335 2714 Ac 3895 3899 4119 3325 2589 Ad 4008 4004 4022 3213 2624 Ah 4007 4023 4089 3229 2641 As 3969 4040 3919 3154 2517 </pre><hr /> *Special thanks to Rharless for helping with the SQL. |
#2
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Re: Party Board Cards
is that how its supposed to look???
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#3
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Re: Party Board Cards
[ QUOTE ]
is that how its supposed to look??? [/ QUOTE ] I'll let the statistics experts (Homer?) evaluate that, I just posted the numbers. |
#4
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Re: Party Board Cards
is that how its supposed to look???
i have not looked too closely (also waiting for homer), but i sure don't see any 2.5+ SD |
#5
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Re: Party Board Cards
numbers should be +/- 100 at this 250K total? - looks right to me. Still won't stop the "losers" from saying this does not prove anything. AL
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#6
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Re: Party Board Cards
Very interesting.
Looks like the single largest deviation is for the As on the river (-2.57 SD from mean of 2689 for the 52 possible cards). This is fine. You expect some relatively large deviations if the distribution is "normal". What's important is that the number of points that deviate by a given amount should decrease as the deviation increases. When I plot the deviation from the mean (in units of SD) for the occurance of each card (using a different series for [edit]flop_card_1, flop_card_2, etc.[/edit]), I get a plot that definitely looks normal to me. There are standard tests for this and I'd like to see someone post an Excel chart (or equivalent) showing one. I'm not a statistician, but if Homer or someone else doesn't have time in the near future, I'll give it a shot. Testing for normality, however, is different from a test of randomness. For instance, you could obtain this same set of numbers if the As fell on the river 2517 consecutive times. So the kooks still have outs.... |
#7
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Re: Party Board Cards
Disclaimer (a la G.W.B.): I'm not a statistician.
The plot below is a "probability plot." This type of plot is used to graphically determine whether sample data are consistent with a population that is normally distributed. If the points fall on a straight line, the hypothesis of normality is justified. This method is subjective since it requires some judgement as to the of the goodness of fit. There are more formal, analytical methods for evaluating this question, but someone else would have to tackle those. In the plot below, the data for the three flop cards pretty much fall on top of each other (as expected). Since the turn and river cards don't get dealt out as frequently, these show up as separate groups of points. I am satisfied that the distribution is normal. However, this is not the same as proving that the deal is random. I think normality is a necessary, but not sufficient condition. Reference: Introduction to Statistical Quality Control, by Douglas Montgomery, pp. 110-114. |
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