QQ Misplayed

dana33 · #1 04-13-2004, 02:36 PM

Please don't beat me up for how badly I played this hand on the flop and turn. I've done enough of that already myself. What I would like to know is whether you agree with my post-mortem analysis ("What I should have thought") as opposed to how I actually played it ("What I thought").

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, Hero raises, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks.

What I thought: I'm afraid of someone with an ace. If I bet, then an A, 8, 5, or draw will call, so I won't know where I stand. Therefore, I'll just check and see if anyone bets, as an A will probably bet while the other hands won't.

What I should have thought: Two people have already checked to me, so I probably have the best hand. I can't give a free card to anyone on a draw or with an underpair. If I check, then a bet from MP2 does NOT mean he has an ace, because he might just be betting into the apparent weakness. I must bet.

Turn: (4 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero calls, MP2 raises, SB calls, BB calls, Hero folds.

What I thought: Now I'm afraid of a 5, so I can't be too agressive here. I'll just call the SB's bet. Uh-oh, that raise by MP2 followed by two calls means SOMEONE must have a 5. I'm outta here.

What I should have thought after the first bet: I showed weakness on the flop, so even someone on a draw or with an 8 could be betting out. I should raise to re-establish control here.

What I should have thought after the raise (given that I had already called the first bet): MP2 has probably concluded that no one has an A, so he could be raising with a 5, an 8 with good kicker, or a pocket pair from 99 to JJ. Among these, I only fear a 5, so I should call. I can't re-raise at this point because I'm worried about that 5, but I can't fold either because the pot is just too big.

River: (11 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB folds, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB

So, at three different decision points, I think I made the wrong choice each time. Aargh. (I'm just glad to be learning at the micro limits, where the tuition is cheap.) Comments welcome.

thirddan · #2 04-13-2004, 03:38 PM

IMO, this flop is a must bet, you have to bet this flop to give lesser hands a chance to fold, also you raised preflop and the field is not terribly great and your hand may be good in this case, you can't give a free card to someone with a K to beat you in the case that your hand is good...Also, many players will check an A to the preflop raiser or c/r...

Turn: since the flop was checked to you can't know if someone has an A or a 5, but they can be pretty sure you don't have an A...i think i would fold to SB's bet on the turn since the pot is not too big...

StellarWind · #3 04-13-2004, 05:46 PM

I would bet the flop and hope for the best.

One consideration is often overlooked with this type of hand. You are going to lose this hand to an ace a lot, but hopefully you win often enough to make it worthwhile. If you bet it is unlikely that anyone will raise. One bet will go into the pot from each player who has hope for their hand. At the end you will either win or lose according to whether someone has an ace.

If you check, MP2 will bet with an ace and everyone will put one bet in the pot, same as before. Without an ace MP2 will probably check through and no money will go in the pot.

So what do you want? Money to go in the pot no matter what? Or money only goes in when you are losing?

Checking is the road to winning small pots and losing big pots. That's a reason it's often better to bet with a marginal hand than check-call.

The turn card combined with SB's bet is a disaster. Fold this tiny pot. He's the SB. He's allowed to have a five. He's also allowed to check Ax to the preflop raiser and then bet it on the turn.

dana33 · #4 04-13-2004, 06:20 PM

SB shows 7h 9h (two pair, aces and fives).
MP2 shows 6c 6h (two pair, aces and sixes).
Outcome: MP2 wins 13 BB.

You can imagine my reaction when I saw these results. The SB bet the turn with nothing but a gutshot, and MP2 raised with a hand that couldn't beat middle pair.

Thanks to those who provided feedback. Based on your remarks, I don't feel quite as bad about my fold on the turn (but I continue to kick myself for not betting the flop).