Quick Bubble Question

[La Brujita]

I was playing a small buy in tournament. 173 started, 20 finish in the money. There are 22 left and I am in 19th place with 2900 chips. Blinds are 200-400 with 50 antes (tournament at UB). Stacks lower than me are approximately 2600, 2400, 1900.

My table is eight handed and I am UTG +1. It is folded to me and I push in with As Js. I am trying to get a handle on my bubble play. Is this a good push? Money doesn't get significant until final table.

I think the play is fine but I am pretty sure I could have backed in to the top twenty by posting and folding. That is why I am not sure what the correct play is. Also, two double ups and I would have felt pretty good to have a good chance at making the final table.

BTW as you may guess I got beat (by JJ).

[Sly_Grin]

from that position no way I go all-in. IMO AJs is a hand to see a flop with. Plus as a short stack lots of people will call your all-in with any AK,AQ, any decent pair. See the flop, push it all if you get an A or 2 spades, be cautious otherwise.

[GoSox]

How big are the stacks in the blinds ?? without AA,KK, AK I would usually limp into the money here before trying to make a double up move.

[SossMan]

Kinda depends on how tight the table is. I'm sure that since it's on the bubble, it's tighter than normal. However, you'll get calls from big stacks w/ all sorts of hands that you dominate (A2-AT, KQ, QJ, KJ, KTs, K9s, QT, TJ) Plus you'll end up in some coin flips. Of course, you won't get anyone to lay down something better than what you hold unless they have about double your stack. Anything bigger than double your stack, or smaller than your stack is gonna call w/ lots of hands you can beat.
If winning more than just your buy-in is important to you, then I think pushing here is clearly positive EV (Tchip and $$).
I hate a limp, and I hate a raise less than your stack. A fold would be pretty weak-tight, but I guess that's the second best option.
So in order:

1. Push
2. Fold
3. Give up poker

[PokerSlut]

UTG+1 is too early to push in with that hand, in my opinion. If you're going to push from EP, do it with a made hand like TT or JJ instead of a hand that needs to catch something on the board to win.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

It's not a bad push. Eight handed, it's probably worth it to just push in here. However, there's something to be said for folding too, as you had enough of a stack to sit and wait. But it's not terrible that you pushed. IMO.

al

[La Brujita]

Blinds were both in the 6000-8000 range. Table was getting pretty tight which was one of the reasons I pushed.

I have a rule I follow in poker, if I think about the play I made after and can't decide if it was a good play or not, I never kick myself for the result.

I am just learning to play multis and bubble play is somewhat new to me in a non one or two tabler context.

I thought this was a close case and appreciate your responses, as well as any further responses.

I was debating with a social poker playing friend and he told me he thought it was a clear fold. I did let slip that if it was the WSOP or some tourney where the buy in was important to me I would have considered folding. In one sense that makes me a bit nervous because there should be one correct play independent of buy in. But in another sense, risk tolerance and fear of variance may play a role in the decision.

Best

[Al_Capone_Junior]

[ QUOTE ]
I did let slip that if it was the WSOP or some tourney where the buy in was important to me I would have considered folding. In one sense that makes me a bit nervous because there should be one correct play independent of buy in. But in another sense, risk tolerance and fear of variance may play a role in the decision.


[/ QUOTE ]

In a $22 tournament, I am more concerned about 1st than sketching into the money for a 54th place $26 payoff. When there's a lot more money on the line, like in a $215 tournament, I become more concerned about finishing in the money than just playing for first. If I had paid $10,000 to enter a tournament, the bubble would be critical for me not to get eliminated, even if I didn't give myself the best chance to finish high in the money.

al

[M.B.E.]

I'm usually playing this the same way you did, pushing in. Because of your position, however, I think it's probably close between folding and pushing in. I'm assuming there's no antes at this stage? If there are antes, then it's a mandatory push with AJs in my opinion; folding gives away too much.

You didn't mention exactly how much you'd get for just sneaking into the money, but I'm assuming it's a pittance, like 2% of the prize pool. Unlike SNGs, bottom place in the money is usually not worth worrying about. Far better to take advantage of the other players who are worrying about busting out on the bubble. Depending on their stack sizes, many players would fold AQ or even AK behind you after you raise close to the bubble.

One thing also to consider, are there a few big stacks behind you that could call your raise without really hurting their stacks. I think you said you had 2900; if everyone behind you has, say, 7000 or less then they're not likely to call you with a medium pocket pair. But if there's a couple of big stacks, like 12K or more, you have to figure they will call your raise with medium pocket pairs like 88, which you don't want, but will probably fold the hands like A8o that you'd like them to call with. So in that case, be more inclined to fold.

As for your final paragraph, I agree -- if it were the WSOP or something where the amount at stake (i.e. the bottom place in the money) were very significant to me, I might decide to give up a little $EV by folding the AJs instead of moving in.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
However, you'll get calls from big stacks w/ all sorts of hands that you dominate (A2-AT, KQ, QJ, KJ, KTs, K9s, QT, TJ)

[/ QUOTE ]
Just to nitpick a little, not all of these that you list are dominated by AJ. In particular, AJ does not dominate KQ, KT, K9, or QT. Domination means that the underdog has to hit one of three or fewer specific cards on the board (disregarding straight and flush possibilities). If KQ is against AJ, the KQ has six cards it can hit.

Also I don't think the typical player with a big stack, holding KQ, KTs, A8, or some of the other hands you mentioned, will call an all-in raise from a medium stack. Of course it depends on the specific player.