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#32
04-04-2004, 09:50 PM
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Re: Let\'s Guess AT This One
sure, but since you're more likely to win than lose, eventually will also win more than 1 in 10. I just think that since you'll get a playable hand that's a favorite to win, x=10 is a fair bet.
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#33
04-04-2004, 10:03 PM
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Re: Let\'s Guess AT This One
I'll say x = 10
-he's going to play about 50% of the hands and I'll say that on average he will be a 60%:40% favorite , so that means he makes 20$ every 2 hands, so to make it fair 20/2 = 10
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#35
04-05-2004, 04:20 AM
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Re: Let\'s Guess AT This One
A lot of people don't seem to be understanding this question at all. Which is odd because its fairly simple IMO.
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#36
04-05-2004, 12:39 PM
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Men have intuition too
Whatever your average edge is.
Seeing as we'd only call with hands that are favoured over his two cards, we'd have to calculate for the entire range of hands (involving some factorials and powers and other fancy-shmancy math-type stuff) what our average edge on any two cards is, ranging in the high end from ~8.8-1 (AA over 72o) to 1.001-1 ( 88 over JTs, no overlapping suits). That number, multiplied by $100, is what would make x and even-money proposition.
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#37
04-05-2004, 01:12 PM
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Re: Let\'s Guess AT This One
$8.24 +/- .02
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#38
04-05-2004, 01:25 PM
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Re: Let\'s Guess AT This One
Ok, my guess is about $43. I didn't go into any calculations except in my head. Here is my proof. 50% the time you don't call as an underdog. When you do call, I estimated you win about 60% of all hands (you could be anywhere between a 51% and a 88% favorite). If you lose 50% when you don't call, and 40% when you do, you lose about 70% of all hands, and win about 30%. If you take 100 total occurrences, you win 100 30 times for $3000. In order to lose the $3000 in the other 70 times, you would need to bet about $42.85. Not too bad?? Not too good??
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#39
04-05-2004, 01:31 PM
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Re: Let\'s Guess AT This One
um, I forgot one small part of the calculation. when you do call and lose, you lose about $2000. So instead of being up $3000 when you call like I suggested, you're only up about $1000. Divide that by the 50 times you don't call, and you get about $20. So I change my answer to $20.
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#40
04-05-2004, 02:47 PM
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$10
If you play approximately 50% of the hands as you are favored, then the intuition relies on what you believe the odds are that you will win a hand that you are preflop favorite.
My guess is that you will win about 60% of the hands you play. To be fair, your losses will equal your winnings. 50% of the time you will lose $x 20% of the time you will lose $100 + $x 30% of the time you will win $100 - $x .5x + .2 ( 100 + x ) = .3 ( 100 - x ) .5x + 20 + .2x = 30 - .3x x = 10 If you go so far as to predict that you would win 75% of your played hands, then x would be as high as $25.
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