An unorthodox hand

[haakee]

Tightish Mirage $20-$40 game. My image is that of a solid player capable of thin value bets. A local limps UTG. Folded to me on the button and I make a variation play and raise with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Tourist in the SB who plays okay but weakish makes it 3-bets. Blah. So much for my little move. Local who's okay but a little loose and a little passive cold-calls in the BB. UTG cold-calls. I call. 4 to the flop for 12 small bets.

Flop: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hmm. Could be worse. SB bets out. BB raises. UTG mucks. I think for a moment and mesmerized by the $300 already in the pot and my read that SB will not re-raise I cold-call. SB just calls.

Turn: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB checks. BB bets. I raise planning on checking behind if I miss. SB folds. BB calls. Okay, he's got an overpair.

River: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. BB checks. Your move?

[J.A.Sucker]

Bet the river.

BTW: You know how much I love this preflop play. You learn well, grasshopper. However, the flop wasn't so good, so I don't think that I would have played on, barring some outstanding image/player control.

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise planning on checking behind if I miss.

[/ QUOTE ]

what was the point of making a plan?

[ZeroGee]

Umm.

There's $520 in the pot. You decided BB has an overpair. You have a pair of sevens.

Board pairs. Scary for the overpair guy. But he has to call $40 to win $600 if you bet. He's not going to fold TT, JJ, QQ, KK, or AA. In fact, he won't fold 88 either.

If you bet here, he called, and you won, congratulate yourself for playing with a frickin' idiot. This is not a place for a value-bet. This is a place for a value-check-turbo-muck. He's not going to fold a better hand, and he's not going to call with a worse hand.

[Dreamer]

What hand that you beat will he call with?
6-6 maybe but its a long shot.

The pot is big, he will call any overpair for 1 more bet.

If you bet and he has nothing you run the risk of a bluff re-raise which I would think about given the size of the pot.

Why not set fire to $40 instead? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[Garland]

Bet at the river-You don't have a shot at winning unless you do. the river 9 serves as a pretty good scare card.

Given SB 3-bets it and BB cold calls 2 more, i'd probably be afraid of overpairs and dump this hand after the flop bet and raise as you were really looking for straight or flush draws right away. i try not to be mesmerized by the pot and look at pot odds, which seem to lay you 15:2 on something you were looking for 2 sevens or 3 sixes or something else to pick up more outs, which looks like 47:5 (immediately).

Heck, you may even be looking at a set at the flop and are drawing practically dead. ..Another reason to get away from the hand, i believe.

Only way to really win is to be really tricky and try to move your opponent off a better hand or to suck out big time.

Garland

[ZeroGee]

For this to work, the following needs to happen:

Gee, there's a ton of money in this pot... but I think the guy was playing T9 and just hit another nine, so I'm going to fold my queens.

... barring that, the following needs to occur ...

Wow, what a terrible card. The guy was playing A9, drawing to two outs (cuz I'm holding aces!), and yet he hit it! Guess I better fold my aces, because there's no way in hell that one out of every 14 times I'm actually winning!

This is what really happens.

"Phew. I had Jacks, but that nine pairing means that the guy's 7-4 two-pair just got counterfeited, and now I'm winning again! RAISE!"

... and so forth. No one will ever fold an overpair there. EVER. And if I'm wrong about that, then they'll do it once every 50 times. Not once every 14.

[Nightwish]

The river bet would be negative EV. So was the cold call on the flop. The pre-flop raise was fine as long as you do it only once in a while.

[Ulysses]

Check and hope he has 66 or 56 (unlikely given his flop play since you said he's passive).

[Ulysses]

Betting with the intent of getting an overpair to fold because the top card paired on the river is definitely -EV.