Worst beat ever!

[ZeroGee]

[Bling]

Im starting to understand... Would you recommend a pot sized bet after the flop or push immediately?

One thing I forgot to mention about the hand is that the guy in question was in the top 10 of chip leaders and had me covered by about 30k. So given that he probably thought that he was leading and that he wasnt going to get busted out by calling I think I am a dead duck here no matter how I bet.

As a general rule of thumb should I be putting in pot sized bets when I am relatively certain I hold the best hand?

PS. I think TPFAP is the only poker book I have not read, but I ordered it immediately after your suggestion [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[scrub]

Ok, ten minutes later and I'm incredibly embarassed. I was completely out of line--I haven't been getting a lot of sleep the past few days and I'm a lot crankier than I realized. The edit timer has run out on my post, so I guess I'm stuck with a permanent testament to the fact that I'm a jackass. Sorry again.

scrub

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I see what you are thinking but you have to understand from a probabalistic point of view from the FLOP it is just plain wrong. even the higher PP vs. made quads on the flop is NOT AS BAD AS THIS BEAT given all information. yes, they are DEAD EVEN on the turn since only one card will make it in both cases. on the turn the higher pocket pair has exactly 1 out of two cards left to give him trips. THEN on the river he has exactly 1 card to give him quads. the possibility of catching either one of those two cards on the turn is what makes it 989:1 vs. 1979:1.

if you don't see this i highly suggest you consult your math books and or probability texts one more time.

PS- before i realized this same thing i posted (about a month ago)that the runner runner straight flush was the worst beat at 1979:1 against. Bigpooch, who is an expert mathematician corrected me and showed me why it was not 1979:1. it is because the runner runner straight flush can catch either needed card on the turn. this cuts the odds virtually in half and makes it much less of a dog (half as much of a dog) as it would be if it was forced to catch one card but had 2 chances.

please reply that you either understand this or need further clarification.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok Barron, I'll try saying this real slow and posting an enumerated board from twodimes for you. Catching one out in two tries can't be any worse than catching one out in one try, right? So getting TWO chances to draw to one out can't be less likely than 1/44, right???

We've seen two hands QQ and Q7. We've also seen three cards on the flop. That means that there are 52-7 = 45 unseen cards on the flop.

P(bad beat) = 1 - (44/45)(43/44) = 88/1980 = ~22:1

If you can't take my word for it, try twodimes:

pokenum -h qh 7h - qc qs -- 7s 7d 6c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 6c 7d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qh 7h 947 95.66 43 4.34 0 0.00 0.957
Qs Qc 43 4.34 947 95.66 0 0.00 0.043

Do you feel better about my understanding of probability now, or should I post further confirmation for you so that you can sleep at night knowing I won't be misevaluating the badness of horribly played tournament beats?

scrub

[/ QUOTE ]

i do feel better thank you. stupid but better.

in a previous post, you stated:

"It's not anywhere near as bad of a beat when you consider that the QQ has two chances to catch its last Q, while the SF has to catch perfect or near perfect twice in a row."

this equates to:

P(SFbadbeat)=(2/45)*(1/44)=2/1980=1/990

P(QQbadbeat)=(1/45)+(44/45)*(1/44)=1/45+44/1980=88/1980.

hmmm. had i done this calculation instead of:

P(QQbadbeat)= (1/45)*(1/44)=1/1980

then i might have caught my mistake and avoided embarassment.

instead i am caught looking quite the fool b/c of a classical simple error of which i refused to let go.

if only my thinking away from the felt battlefield could be as flexible as it is there (due to forced concentration) then this silliness could have been avoided.

since that flexibility is clearly lacking here i must humbly apologize for my tone and seek forgiveness.

Therefore, i'm sorry and i'll look to avoid such carelessness in calculations and in prognostication in the future.

take care,
-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, ten minutes later and I'm incredibly embarassed. I was completely out of line--I haven't been getting a lot of sleep the past few days and I'm a lot crankier than I realized. The edit timer has run out on my post, so I guess I'm stuck with a permanent testament to the fact that I'm a jackass. Sorry again.

scrub

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. great minds think alike right? although mistaken at times...

go read my response to your post and you'll see what i mean. we both apologized at the same time, you for your tone and me for mine and my careless error.

so, no hard feelings and no worries.

good luck
-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Im starting to understand... Would you recommend a pot sized bet after the flop or push immediately?

One thing I forgot to mention about the hand is that the guy in question was in the top 10 of chip leaders and had me covered by about 30k. So given that he probably thought that he was leading and that he wasnt going to get busted out by calling I think I am a dead duck here no matter how I bet.

As a general rule of thumb should I be putting in pot sized bets when I am relatively certain I hold the best hand?

PS. I think TPFAP is the only poker book I have not read, but I ordered it immediately after your suggestion [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

no worries, man...you should read below and see the tiff i got into with scrub when i was way out of line...it happens.

with respect to your betting on the flop and turn you have to think about what he has and more importantly, YOUR STACK, HIS STACK, the REST of the stacks and the stage of the tournament. further, the blind increase schedule and table break-up schedule factor in a bit but not much in this spot.

if he has many more chips than the rest of the tourney players he may be in "fast mode" (trying to get every bit of "ev" out of every hand) and therefore he may be limping with a big pair or good hand in addition to lower quality but still decent holdings.

here, i'd make a pot sized bet in the same "call THIS" manner in which i make all bets and look him dead in the eye (which i do anyway so nothing is given away here...go read elysium's method of "I BET" BAM, "I BET" and you'll get an idea). if he flat calls i'll certainly put him on a big pair or other good holding that he's willing to go down wth and if he checks the turn i'd move in.

if he bets on the turn i'd move in...either way the pot sized bet on the flop accomplishes a lot more!.

further, another point i forgot to mention but which is HUGELY important here is the relative value of your chips. since he has many more than you, each individual chip is less valuable to him than each individual chip is to you given your relative stack sizes. so by betting only 1200 into 9000 you bet MORE for you and LESS for him.

he only had to call with the equivalent of lets say 600 if he had you by 2:1. thats a real cheap card for him and a big mistake for you. in other words, for you to make him call with the equivalent of 9000 chips when he has you by MANY chips you'd have to bet almost double the pot...

these concepts are clearly covered by the TPFAP so you'll see 'em all enumerated in the classic sklansky style when you receive your copy.

good luck.
-Barron

[Bling]

I HAVE SEEN THE LIGHT!

The comment about relative value of chips is one that I suprisingly haven't really thought of. I think that alone will help my tournament play.

thanks Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I HAVE SEEN THE LIGHT!

The comment about relative value of chips is one that I suprisingly haven't really thought of. I think that alone will help my tournament play.

thanks Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

don't worry!! it really isn't surprising and i didn't just think of that by myself either. it was explained to me in gambling theory and other topics lol. then sklansky goes about it much more directly in the following manner in TPFAP:

he says to think of it like selling your chips in the WSOP. at the beginning you have $10000. you can sell 'em for $10000. but if you win you'll have $2million in chips but only $1million in prize money so somebody would have to be an idiot to buy 'em for their face value of $2million.

mason and david have referred to the running joke that winning a tourney is a "bad beat" since you earned more in playing than you get paid in prize money.

there are much more valuable pieces of advice in TPFAP than this but it takes this general understanding to digest it all and get the quizzes right.

again, hope the best for ya and good luck.
-Barron