Is this a WPT class fold or just another schmuck farmer fold?

[magithighs]

My goal is to play like a top tournament player. After every tournament, I analyze my play and analyze my play vis a vis what I think a top rated WPT player would do. So far, things have been pretty obvious. However, I made a recent play that's nagging me because I believe it was a fold only a top-rated player would make. But, that's seen through my eyes and I'd like to hear what others think.

I'm in the $200 saturday Party NL tourney.

It's near the second hour with average stack size around 2400.

I'm in the middle of the pack on my table with T1600 and have been at the same table for 20 minutes.

Blinds are 200/100.

I need to double up and I'm looking for opportunities. None surface, but now I'm dealt JJ in MP. UTG is a decent player from what I see, quite & effective. Hasn't taken any obvious shots at the blinds and has T2600. He raises to T600.

I'm thinking I need a stronger hand to call, than I would to raise. For sure, I'm raising first-in with the jacks. However, I'm facing an UTG raise from a decent player.

I think he may have a) a big pocket TT and above, or b) A(K,Q), or c) a small pocket 9 or lower. I do some rough math and figure it's a 20/80% split on whether I'm ahead or behind. On the 80% I'm ahead, I'm only a strong favourite on 20%. So, 20% I'm way behind, 40% I'm a slight favourite and 40% I'm a strong favourite.

I'm thinking my only play is to push all-in or fold. If he calls I figure I'm only a slight favourite or way behind. By my math the slight fav. is a coin flip, so I have roughly 40% probability to take down the pot on a call. Too much to risk my stack on this for the potential reward of T950, especially since half the table has not acted. If I'm in LP, I'm more inclined to push all-in.

So, I fold. It's been eating away at me.

Let me know what you think.

Cheers
Magi

P.S. I preserved my chips for a great opporutinity a few hands later. I'm in LP with KK and two limpers. I push all-in and I'm taken down by an ace on the river!!! C'est la vie -- at least I know that was the right decision.

[cferejohn]

I agree this is an all-in or fold situation. Calling here commits you to the pot anyway and you really would rather shut out everyone else if at all possible if you are going to play the hand.

If UTG is tight and doesn't get too aggressive out of position (as your read of him seems to indicate) I think this raise has to mean you are either a way behind, a coinflip, or *maybe* against TT/99. If this really is a reasonable player, I don't think he'd be raising here with a pair below 99, so I don't think you are far ahead even as often as you think).

Assuming your read was correct, I think this is a good fold. Given that you were on the cusp of desperate (which I define as "an all-in preflop raise will alost certainly be called by someone") I wouldn't mind an all-in here either.

[jwvdcw]

Definitely a tough call and one in which I wouldn't argue strongly for either side. Personally, I would've pushed all-in, thinking that because he is a tight player, he will be able to lay down a hand like A-Qs, which a looser player would call with.

[Scooterdoo]

Given your chip situation relative to the blinds I think an all-in is pretty easy. True, my read of the situation is he has a pair 88 or better or AK through ATs or perhaps something like KQs. I think you are most likely a coin flip if he calls, although you can be either be a strong favorite or large dog which you clearly realized.

HOWEVER, witih the majority of the hands other than AA, KK, QQ or AK he is likely to fold given that you have about the minimum to scare him off the pot if he's not super confident. Even if he has two overcards and calls, I wouldn't mind a coin flip in your situation to double-up. If you wait it out you are in danger of having to win hands out-right given that your stack is getting a bit too low relative to the blinds. This could be as good as it gets for you so why not take the chance?

So to answer your question, I'm pretty sure that most WPT pros would have pushed-in -- that's just my opinion, but it's a strong opinion.

[Vince Lepore]

Magithighs,

[ QUOTE ]
It's been eating away at me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Had your KK held up we would`nt be having this discussion, right? You made a tough decision. In this case it worked perfectly! That`s right, perfectly! It doesn`t get much better preflop than to get all of your short stack money in with K,K against a weak Ace even though an under pair might have been better. The point is that you felt like you could find a better situation than the one you faced with J,J (a weak hand facing a resonable UTG raiser) and you were right! Don`t second guess yourself when your decision provides you with the goal you made it for in the first place. You will definitely go nuts if you do. Plus my guess is that your game will suffer tremendously because of the self doubt you are creating.

Vince

[sdplayerb]

I agree, and exactly with the hands you name also.
I fold, am bitter, but fold.

Another issue is if he has TT, 99, he folds.
So 99, TT, you win 900.
AQ I think he folds too.
AK you have a race (i don't play poker to have 50/50 shots, well not until a smaller stack).
AA-QQ you are crushed.

So if ahead you win 900, if behind you lose 3,000.
I fold.

If I was at 2,000, I pushin. Probably up to around 2,500 I pushin.

I just don't like to get in situations for all my chips where if there is a call I am a coinflip or behind.

SD

[magithighs]

If the KK holds up, I go to T2400 and think it's a brilliant fold. However, I would still make the same post -- I would still have the same nagging feeling. The reason I posted is that I was patting myself on the back for one of my best folds. I had thought about the situation before I got the jacks and considered the fold on many different angles. However, I realize that me patting myself on the back is not as good as other winning players and possibly WPT champions. I wanted to see if my thought process was correct.

You're right about the second guessing -- I'm not doing that. I'm checking my thought process. My journey to becoming a consistent limit winner really made a huge leap when I figured out when to fold. I then started to fold more than I should have, but it was a big advantage over other low limit players and still is.

And for now, I'm pretty confident I put the right ingredients into my decision to fold. I appreciate your thoughts.

Cheers
Magi

[magithighs]

Many thanks for all your replies. After reading them, it sounds like I considered the right things and came up with the right options -- push-in or fold. And, it sounds like there would be very good reasons for either option. More of a coin flip.

When I wrote the question I wasn't sure what tipped the scales for me to fold. After reading the replies and further consideration, I think the biggest reason was that half the table hadn't acted and there were two rather large stacks (T5000, T6200) in late position.

If I were one of them, I'd be licking my chops. I'd see two people who could likely be crippling each other with two AKs. As the LP player with the big stack, I wouldn't be threatened by my bet and it would be a real nice way for me to scoop this rather large pot.

It was the threat of the big stacks that tipped the scale for me. So, I'm now more at ease with my decision and thank everyone for their feedback.