So what am I missing, really?

[Morbo]

I would call myself a beginner at Texas Hold'em. I have a few hours at the table, and I have read the odd book, but after what I have learned there is one concept that is beyond my understanding, and it's about low pocket pairs.

From what I see, unless you can get your low PP heads up, your goal is to flop a set, and if you don't catch it, check/fold. The odds of flopping a set with pocket pair is, if I recall correctly, about 7.5 to 1. It seems as if you are to get correct odds you will need 8 callers, which is redicilous. So what am I missing?

My only guess would be the implied odds, which I don't know much about. How do you calculate these really? And how many callers do you really need to play a low pocket pair? Thanks to anyone who can shed some light for me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Munga30]

Yes, you are missing implied odds. Here's the basics.

For simplicity, lets say the odds of flopping a set *and* having it hold up are 9:1. However, you seldom get 9 opponents matching the bets you put in preflop and are not immediately making money by playing small pairs (if you do get 9 opponents, you are making money immediately). However, when you hit your set and it is good, you are likely to collect extra bets beyond what was put in the pot preflop. These bets are *implied*. Collecting these implied bets is where you make money playing small pairs.

So how many of these implied bets do you have to collect? When you put in 1 small bet preflop with only 5 opponents, you are immediately "losing" money because you are short 4 small bets (from the 9:1). But it is fairly easy to collect 4 small bets after the flop, especially when the turn and river are double sized bets. Collect exactly 4 and you are breaking even. Collect more than 4 and you are making money.

So what happens when someone raises and you have to put in two small bets preflop. Now instead of having to collect 4 small bets to break even, you need to collect 8. The bar has been raised!!! When you put in 4 small bets preflop with a small pair against 5 opponents, you *must* collect 16 small bets post flop with your set just to break even. See how this gets difficult?

So what do you do? Start throwing away small pairs when you have to pay multiple bets!!! You are not going to collect enough money to make it worthwhile.

[Bob T.]

Because you don't always win when you flop a set, you actually want to be able to collect about 12-1 on your preflop investment.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[Munga30]

Do you really think flopped sets hold up less than 50% of the time (12 - 7.5 = 4.5, which is more than half of 7.5), or is 12 just a clearly profitable number?

[sthief09]

2 things:
1. Munga, in your first post you say that you need an additional 4 SB because you got 5 preflop. Well you aren't taking into consideration the bet you will make on the flop, turn, and river. You need an extra bet per round to compensate

2. The general rule of thumb in LL games is that you need 5 people in the pot to get the implied odds to call a low PP. This means you need to almost be able to GUARANTEE at least 5. Not hope. Guarantee. Get HEFAP.

[Bob T.]

When they don't hold up, they are usually expensive. Unfortunately, I can't remember if I got the number 12 from the board here, or out of a specific book.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.