2+2 Hand: HAUNTS ME TO THIS DAY

[EVIL]

Poker Stars 2+2 Game from 2/26/04.

EVIL ($90) is SB and is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Folded to MP1 ($140) who limps.

Folded to EVIL who makes it $2. BB folds, MP1 calls.

Flop ($4.50): 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

EVIL bets $4, MP1 calls.

Turn ($12.50): 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

EVIL bets $12, MP1 calls.

River ($36.50): T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

EVIL bets $15, MP1 calls.

[SaintAces]

[img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]


[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[EVIL]

Here was my thought process throughout the hand.

Flop: I take a standard shot at the flop. Even though I missed it completely, there's a good chance he folds right there. After he calls, I'm thinking he might have a weakish king or club flush draw.

Turn: The 2 puts a possible straight on board, though it's very unlikely it's given him a straight, and has probably given me 4 extra outs. If he has a weakish king, firing the 2nd barrel with a good pot-sized bet may induce him to fold, from fear of being dominated by AK or being up against AA. He calls. I'm beginning to strongly suspect the club flush draw.

River: I have only the 2nd nut no-pair, but a 3rd club did not hit. I decide it's likely enough he was on the club flush draw that making a proper-sized bet here may be profitable. Betting about 1/3-1/2 the pot will look like I'm betting for value against a weakish king, and he will pretty much have to fold his busted flush draw if that is what he does indeed have. He only needed to be about 40% or more likely to have the busted draw for the bluff to be profitable. I felt like I couldn't check the river, because this is inviting a bluff from a busted draw.

Comments?

[EVIL]

Opponent had K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

[Robk]

The preflop raise is a mistake IMO. Why give someone a chance to raise you off a nice drawing hand? On the river why are you looking to bet a club draw out of the hand when you can beat it by checking (unless it rivered a T)? Plus only the worst players make the turn call with clubs, so it looks like an unlikely hand for him to hold anyway.

[EVIL]

Thanks Robk.

Regarding the turn call and the likelihood of a flush draw, isn't it possible that a flush draw would think he has sufficient implied odds to call? His immediate pot odds are only 2:1 but if he can expect to extract an extra $30 or more when he hits, then a call would be +EV.

On the river I guess my position created a dilemma. If I were last to act, I definitely would've just checked it down. Otherwise, if I check to him when an irrelevant card hits, doesn't it basically announce I have nothing, and invite a busted draw to make a bet that I can't really call?

[Robk]

[ QUOTE ]
Regarding the turn call and the likelihood of a flush draw, isn't it possible that a flush draw would think he has sufficient implied odds to call? His immediate pot odds are only 2:1 but if he can expect to extract an extra $30 or more when he hits, then a call would be +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with implied odds on flush draws is they're so obvious. If a club hits, you can see it and he can't count on you calling a pot size bet, can he? You check and he has to try and sell it. Plus two of his outs pair the board. He might have something else to go along with the flush in which case the call would be marginal.

[ QUOTE ]
On the river I guess my position created a dilemma.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another reason not to raise preflop [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Otherwise, if I check to him when an irrelevant card hits, doesn't it basically announce I have nothing, and invite a busted draw to make a bet that I can't really call?

[/ QUOTE ]

True you can't call a big bet, but he doesn't know that. Mostly they figure you for a king that will call, and turn their hand over. Sometimes they bet a small amount and you pick it off. It's a tough spot for you though without knowing the player. Your river bet only saves you the pot those times he has the draw and would bet it and you would fold though. Since it's costing you a third of the pot to bet, is it really worth it?

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
His immediate pot odds are only 2:1 but if he can expect to extract an extra $30 or more when he hits, then a call would be +EV.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think the club draw is really far-fetched. You're both 2+2ers. You should know that he isn't that likely to draw with such thin odds to a hand that he should know you probably won't pay off on. Maybe he would call on the flop and wait for the river to pop you if he made his hand on the turn, thus putting doubt in your mind and maybe getting paid off but would he really call that turn bet and expect to make up for the thin draw when he suddenly gets excited at a third club on the river?

Anyway, you decided that he might be on a flush draw and if you really think that's likely then you have to bet. I would have found it pretty hard to convince myself that all he had was a busted draw, though. I will say I don't like the way he just called, called, called your bets unless it was part of some devious plan to "steal" the pot from you if a club fell.

SpaceAce

[Redmen62]

This was me, right? Hmm, looks pretty fishy calling all the way in this context.

If it's the hand I remember, I was very confident that I had you on the flop, that you weren't holding AK or something else that was trouble. The way the game was played, I thought it more likely that you would go for a check-raise on this non-threatening flop if you were holding something like AK/AA. I have position, and I don't want to take you out of the lead if you are bluffing.

The turn call was much more questionable in my opinion, river call is a foregone conclusion at that point.

I think you played it OK, although as someone mentioned, a naked flush draw seems unlikely amongst reasonable players.

I'm somewhat surprised I didn't lay it down on the turn, but as I said, the game had a unique texture and I went with my read.

If this wasn't me, well then I'm sure the guy was thinking along much the same lines. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[EVIL]

Correct, you were MP1. Your read was spot-on in this hand. I think I should've shut down after you called my turn bet.