Running bad or playing badly?

[bigpooch]

6) ask they truly lucky players to leave

Holdem Parallel: Don't fight the lucky player. They are lucky and you're not going to bring them down. So, many times I've tried and donated. Far better to leave and look for the unlucky players.

The last point makes no sense. If the game is good, simply
continue playing. If you get involved with the "lucky
player", why would you try to change your play because he
was lucky? That seems more like tiltosis! From what I have
gathered from your post, your trying to bring lucky players
down is irrational play, not based on making the best +EV
decisions.

[magithighs]

Yes, I believe it is tiltosis. I don't know about you, but when I'm involved in a game with a very lucky player, I'm inclined to overplay my AK, QQ, KK or whatever decent hand I have. I'm not sure how to describe it, but it's like I'm saying to myself, "their luck can't hold out....and they think it will", and I push my AK too hard on them and take my eye off someone else that sideswipes me.

I often will stay in a good game -- you know the ones with guy the 23 off catching two pair on the turn or river and taking down the big pocket, or the k7 off in MP catching the straight with the 7. Many times though, I've found these players will stay lucky for a few hours. So, I've learned to leave these games and find a more lucrative "good game". It's very easy to do online, and I often get sucked into the mode of staying until it turns. Online, it's so much easier just to find another "good game" and forget about waiting for the lucky player's luck to run out.

As in the original post, I believe luck plays a significant factor. IMO, why fight one or two players who are trully having a lucky day. It's real easy to find another table.

[DrSavage]

[ QUOTE ]
6) ask they truly lucky players to leave

Holdem Parallel: Don't fight the lucky player. They are lucky and you're not going to bring them down. So, many times I've tried and donated. Far better to leave and look for the unlucky players.


[/ QUOTE ]
If this is how you play I seriously recommend you stop playing poker right now.

[Al Schoonmaker]

Clarkmeister,
It's marvelous that so many people are still interested in this subject so long after I wrote the article, and you posted your excellent comments.
Mason and I have often discussed why 2+2 forums are the best. Among the most important reasons is that we have posters like you. I've learned a lot from you.
Thanks,
Al

[Kenshin]

[ QUOTE ]

I often will stay in a good game -- you know the ones with guy the 23 off catching two pair on the turn or river and taking down the big pocket, or the k7 off in MP catching the straight with the 7. Many times though, I've found these players will stay lucky for a few hours. Online, it's so much easier just to find another "good game" and forget about waiting for the lucky player's luck to run out.

IMO, why fight one or two players who are trully having a lucky day.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, luck does not function in the above described way. If I win 2 hands in a row with 72o, do I momentarially gain access to a transient force that will dissipate in a matter of hours? Of course not! As Dr. Al and others have stated on numerous occasions, luck/rushes/fortune/nods from the poker gods have absolutely no predictive power in determining future outcomes. I find the tendancy of intelligent people to fear randomness extremely unfortunate and ultimately detrimental to their well-being . The cards neither favor you nor spurn you. In actuality, they are utterly, simplistically, bueatifully random.

[magithighs]

I understand what you're saying -- prior events are independant of future events and trying to connect them is futile. I wasn't trying to say that one could predict the outcome of the next hand based on someone's luckiness.

If I believed that one could predict a future event based on somone's luck factor, I'd go to vegas and find all the lucky winners and get them to pick my lotto numbers. That would work about as good as getting my cat to predict them.

I do believe that luck does come in bunches. Not for any given event -- but over a series of hands -- I've experienced it and seen it so much. If someone is having a lucky night I find it affects my play. My point is -- for me it's much better to leave the table rather than trying keep my play straight and wait for the odds to catch up with the lucky player (that takes my focus off them). The odds allways catch up and as you mention will come out right over time.

[CrisBrown]

Hi All,

I think there is some truth to the "lucky chair/player" situation, though not in the way people normally explain the phenomenon.

Random events will cluster from time to time. And while past random events do not predict future random events, poker is not entirely a random situation. A player on a "hot streak" may not simply be getting better cards, but playing way above himself for a short time. Conversely, in a game where someone is running over the table, the other players may play below themselves -- gunning for the "hot" player with marginal hands, or avoiding him with good ones -- which adds to his edge.

If you know you're one of those players who's likely to do that, then you are indeed better off changing tables when someone catches fire and seems to win pot after pot, rather than continue playing when you won't be playing your best.

Cris

[Al Schoonmaker]

If you go to cardplayer.com and click on magazine, writers, and my name, you can find a two part series on "Playing the rush." Part I is on "offense," what to do when you're on a rush. Part II is on "defense," what to do when someone else is on a rush.
The critical point of both articles is that the laws of probability have not been affected at all, but people's beliefs, feelings, and play will often change dramatically.
Regards,
Al

[Kinli]

Thanks for an excellent and informative post. I've watched it happen in my own game.... and I know I'm not good enough to have deserved some of those amazing hot streaks. Streaks where damn near anything I played won.

OTOH, I always figured I deserved the losing streaks.... [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Kinli