Another leak, or proper play?

[StellarWind]

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So using the 1 in 3 reasoning, you win 1 bet twice and lose 2 bets once. Therefore you have 0 EV

Now, however you can add in other hands they may call with: any decent A high, possibly any K high. Perhaps a bad str8 draw that paired the 5 on the turn. Now you have positive EV.

Is this logical?

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Yup, you got the idea.

It all depends on what you think he needs to:

1. Call preflop
2. Call the flop and turn
3. Not bet the river

Plus ignore any hands that will fold if you bet, because it doesn't matter what you do. JT might be in that category--he missed his draw so he knows he's dead against a preflop raise.

If you think the overall likelihood of a 9 is less than 1/3, then you should bet.

I think most of the posters would say something like "Most low-limit players play all of their hands this way, that's why we call them calling stations--bet the river!"

Maybe they are right.