flop a set, fold a set

[mike l.]

"So he can have AA(3 ways) and KK (3 ways) or KdJd (1 way) -- horrible fold."

youre being simplistic. my read was KdJd was less likely than AA or KK by quite a bit. so it looks like 1 in 7, but it's actually weighted more towards AA or KK. at least that was my read. and is it really fair for me to completely discount AxKd (i think it is, but it's a big pot...).

but there's more: what could all in player have? maybe AA as well as KdJd are less likely because those are likely sorts of cards for all in player to have in her hand?

[shemp]

What can I say, I'm an idiot? I can't even figure out why a confident turn 3-bet makes a set more likely than a flush.

[SoBeDude]

I don't know many players who will confidently 3bet a turn check-raise with a set, when both a Flush and a Straight are out on the board.

If he's really reraising you with confidence, he has the flush, or maybe the straight with a redraw to the nut flush?

I think in many situations here, you're drawing live to 10 outs to fill up.

I get the feeling that when you get to posting the results that you made a good read. I just don't think its a good laydown in general.

And the 2 bets you burned on the turn could have got you to a showdown with a big hand. And when both the straight and flush is out there, why 3bet when you may be behind? give youself a cheap chance to improve on the river.

And I remember in HPFAP, they mention if you never fold a set you're not making much of a mistake. So, it seems to me, when you have a set, spend the same number of bets its going to take to get to the showdown but fold (giving you 0% chance of winning the hand), that has to be a bigger mistake in terms of EV than just calling down.

-Scott

[SA125]

You get credit for this one. You got more thumbs down than up. This was a good question that brought out good answers.

[Depraved]

I'd confidently reraise you with AxK[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I might even do it with AxJ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. If your opponent is any good at all, he's completely capable of this, at least on occasion.

If he's solid and sharp enough to reraise you with a set when you've represented a flush, then he's definitely capable of raising with worse hands that can improve.

Conversely, if he's so predictable that he would only reraise with the nuts, you had 10 outs and should have called.

[shemp]

You've completely misunderstood the question. If the only hands the guy can have are AA and KK, is a fold correct? Retracing how we know what we know is a dead end. Asking why AA or KK do not think they are behind given that this is (see above) how mike l. would play a flush draw will get you nowhere.

I point this out so you're prepared for when the results go something like: He had the flush, but the board didn't pair on the river so I would have lost, and I still think the fold was correct because the chances that he had what he had were less than .0001%, and the BB had KQ, so my draw wasn't very live anyway.

[mike l.]

i will tell you this much about the results:

the case 9 came on the river.

[shemp]

bummer... but you made a great fold... right? (If I'm wrong again, I love my chances next time around.)

[mike l.]

"bummer... but you made a great fold... right?"

wrong! i brainfarted. i thought i was making a really great laydown. fact is he had that KdJd. all in player had AQo. i didnt take into account what she could have. if i did i wouldve been able to realise that it's a bit less likely he has a set. plus youre right: there's was an inconsistency in my thinking in the hand. how could he be too timid to 3 bet worse hands on the turn, but not so timid that he would auto-3 bet my c/r on the turn holding just a set on that coordinated board? it makes no sense.

i put the player on a certain small range of hands on the flop and i failed to think things through carefully on the turn.

ah well... other than this nasty little error i played so tight and so good last night im still in shock.

[shemp]

Go back to Tommy's post and take heed. You did the absolute right thing at that instant in time on that table based innumerable ineffables. So something else went down. It's gambling. 1) Don't look back. 2) Nobody Feels Any Pain.

(Just don't do that again.)