What is a bad run?

[Rook80]

I'm relatively new to on-line poker (been playing since Oct) and have done OK on the low-limit table. Between tournaments and real money tables I've managed to win as of today about $550. The reason I ask the question in sujbect is that I've had a realy bad January and I don't know if this is a common thing or I've hit a unually bad run.

Let me give you 3 hands from tonight that are typical I what has happen to me over the last 3 weeks.
3/6 table
1) I'm on the SB and get AA. I raise pre-flop and 5 people follow me in. The flop comes down 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I bet out and everyone folds except one other play. He has gone in with a Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and hits a K9 on the turn and river (about a 30+ to 1 shot).

.5/1 table
2) I'm on the button and decide to see the flop with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. The flop comes down Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I get beat by a person that has gone in with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] when the turn and river draw out a 53.

2/4 table
3) I'm 2 off the BB and person to my right call the blind, I also call with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], the button call and so BB checks. The flop comes down with a K and Q plus some low card. I may a mistake and slow play the hand thinking the button would bet out (that's how he was playing), he didn't. The turn is nothing and I bet out, the river is an A. The button has gone in with J 10 getting a straight. I misplayed this hand but I've play this same hand aggressively and lost the same way.

I'm not trying to cry about bad beats but I seem to be getting a lot of them over the last 3 weeks. I've probably lost 80% of the hands that I've flopped 2 pair. I have been following Sklandsky suggestion for starting hand and try to keep my total flops seen down to about 20% on a 10 person table so the hands I'm losing with are usually strong.

So I quess my question is, is this common going for 3 week and losing 3 out every 4 session I play in? I've had shorter streaks of a couple of days so but never anything as long as this (going on 3 week).

[umdpoker]

not sure how common it is, but i have been on a crappy run the last 3 weeks too. i would guess you can expect this twice a year.

[Nottom]

I have a question to ask and don't take this the wrong way ... From what I understand you say you have only won $550 since October, yet I see that you are playing 3/6.

Are you sure you should be in that game? Are you consistantly beating the lower limits? Is your bankroll big enough for the swings you will see at that level?

The reason I ask is that a lot of new players start moving up before they are ready and just because they start out on a good run of cards they think they can beat the game, when in actuality they still have a lot of flaws in their game and are a losing player that was just on a good run. When these players start losing we often here about rigged sites and all sorts of complaing (none of which I am accusing you of) yet the underlying reason is simply that they weren't as good as they thought they were.

I obviously know nothing about if you are a winning or losing player, but I would say that based on how long you've been playing that there is a good chance that you may want to take a good look at your game and post some hands here for discussion. Pick the ones you think you played well or the ones where you think you may have made a mistake.

As for your current run, its really hard to say how common it is since you don't really say how bad it is. How many bets are you down over how long a time frame?

[Duke]

Playing 3 tables I'll take a beat like you describe about once per hour. Maybe a little more than that. I'm talking about party poker here, where the fish know they have to see the river or they'll die.

Over just a few (1000-2000) hands you can have weird results that are way out of kilter with what the math says should happen in the long run.

~D

[Rook80]

Thanks for the reply. Tried to write back yesterday but the site when down.

It was the first time I try 3/6 Limits. Your right it is high for me but I thought I might not get people chasing the turn and river to make their hand (very common on .5/1 tables).

I don't think it rigged, I just think I on a bad run and I was looking for player who have positive hourly rate to give me example of bad runs they had. I don't know if what I'm experiencing now is common (3 straight weeks of losing on just about every session) or if this is a long time be on this type of run.

I've invested in some of Sklandsky's books on holdem as well as reading articles on PokerPages and Card Player web site as a way helping me improve. I also purchase Poker Tracker software so I could down load my hand histories and then review how I've played. Your right in saying I should post some hands here to get some input from other player.

During the last 3 weeks I've drop about $400 but surprisingly I still slightly up for the month. I mainly play .5/1 table. I've been seeing aprox. 20% of flops and winning about 5% the total hands delt to me at a 10 person table. Quiet a few times I've only won 2 or 3 of the first 100 hands delt, usually I hit a short run after this where I might will 4 out of 10 hands, but that is about it. I consider myself to be a faily tight player but will loosen up my requirement on the button.

I know I have a lot of leaks but hopefully with some experience and using forum like this I'll be able to seal some of them

Again thanks for the reply!

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
So I quess my question is, is this common going for 3 week and losing 3 out every 4 session I play in? I've had shorter streaks of a couple of days so but never anything as long as this (going on 3 week).


[/ QUOTE ]
it sounds like a horrific bad run. though i have yet to experienced it since when i started playing in August last year, i suppose it could happen if you:

1) play very short sessions
2) play short handed games
3) Play one table only
4) are very unlucky

but there could be real problems too, as i have never experienced that bad of a run in live either. closest was in August of 2002, when i was a novice and played with people better than me... even then...

i guess u might want to pay more attention to game selection, try to find more passive games, preferrably loose too.

hope you do better soon,

Kenny

[balkii]

[ QUOTE ]
not sure how common it is, but i have been on a crappy run the last 3 weeks too. i would guess you can expect this twice a year.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would expect to see this more than twice a year. In the last week I have had two ~100 BB downswings.

[Nottom]

If you have lost $400 at .5/1 then there is probably a definate problem in your game (although I don't most of you losses are at this level). Stepping up to higher limits in order to quickly make back the money you lost is a sure way to go broke. You still don't say how much time you played over your losing streak or what limit you lost your money. For example, I lost nearly $400 yesterday at 3/6, sure it stings a bit but I'm not overly concerned because its only about a 60BB loss. How bad a losing streak is all relative to how often you play and what limits you play at.

[ QUOTE ]
It was the first time I try 3/6 Limits. Your right it is high for me but I thought I might not get people chasing the turn and river to make their hand (very common on .5/1 tables).


[/ QUOTE ]

It is all those people chasing to the river that make the low-limit games so good. If you don't understand this, then please continue to read this forum and hopefully we can convince you that its true. Continue to play at the lower limits until you can reliably beat them, playing againt better opponents isn't going to make the game any easier.