Folding KK On The Bubble - Good? Bad? Ugly?

[SheridanCat]

After our regular weekly poker game we have a single table tournament. This is a situation that
came up.

10 Players
Entry Fee: $100 for T4000
Payout: 500/300/200

We're down to 4 players
Blinds are 500/1000
The chip leader has most of the chips

Button: Lowest stack, only T1000 left
SB: Me with second largest stack of about T7000
BB: Small stack with about T4000
UTG: Chip leader with T25000+

All of the players are good. The chip leader has the least tournament play experience, but he is
a solid holdem player. The other players have tournament experience and are excellent players. I
am probably the poorest player at the table.

UTG: Goes all-in with his huge stack.
Button: Folds

I look down and find pocket Kings. I start to think. The short stack will be all in on his BB.
If I call the all-in, I know the BB will fold unless he's holding Kings or Aces, so I'm going to
be heads-up with a covering stack that could bust me on the bubble.

I fold.

This is a friendly game, so after the hand, I showed it. Discussion ensued, and the other players
definitely would not have laid it down. I thought I made the right play. I was thinking mostly
of making the money at that point - I'd worry about what to do with my short stack once I made
the money.

Up until about this moment, I thought I'd done the right thing, but now that I think about it, had
I doubled up, I would have been pretty close to the chip leader, and I would have had a shot at
the first place money. I guess I was being a survialist.

I did make the money and bust out third with pocket fives vs. pocket kings. So, I guess my strategy
worked out. I think I may need to readjust my strategy.

Regards,

T

[rbenuck4]

I don't like the flod for a couple of reasons. First of all, if you do double up in this situation, which is almost definite unless the chip leader has aces, which I highly doubt considering his bet, you have a very good chance at that point of winning the tournament. Right now you are only playing for second place and a slight chance at first. Doubling up would definately put you in serious contention. Second, if the BB is all in already and somehow the big stack knocks both of you out, since you had more chips than the BB at the start of the hand, the BB will finish in 4th and you will finish in 3rd, aka in the money. I think you can risk the very slight chance of you losing and the BB winning in this siutation, which would leave you in 4th place. Putting you rmoney all in with Kings seems to be very +EV in this situation. Go ahead and risk IMO.

[cferejohn]

You described yourself as "probably the poorest player at the table". Given that description, I think this call is even more automatic, since you can actually get your chips in at (presumably) a significant advantage. If you honestly consider yourself a poorer player than the others, you should be willing to take 50/50 chances when you can get them, and certainly this seems to be significantly better than that.

Putting that concern aside for the moment, I don't think the fold was as bad as all that, given the player who was about to go out. The payout structure is fairly flat (at least 2nd and 3rd are pretty close), so playing for third place makes more sense than it otherwise might...

I'd still call though.

[NotMitch]

I guess it comes down to what you think UTG would push all in with (a play that I think here is awful BTW)? And unless you think that is a play he would make with AA and nothing else I think it is a call. Unless cashing is more important than winning it all for you, then folding is the play.

[BradleyT]

Even if you call and double up you're still not guaranteed first because as you said the other players can outplay you. So you're pretty much a lock on second with a chance at first if you call and win.

However you will get busted out say 20% and get $0 when you call.

You will get at least third about 80% of the time by folding and still have chips and a chance at second and first when you fold.

I think this one is pretty obvious.

[LetsRock]

I don't think this is such a bad fold given the situation.

Here's my thoughts: By folding you have about a 90% chance of finishing in the money. Sure winning is best, but given the situation, it doesn't look promising that you're in position to do that.

Yes you had very good cards and very likely the best cards at the time. But we all know the truth of the matter is that the best starters don't always win the pot. Even if you're a 75% favorite going in, there's still a 25% chance that you'll be busted out and get nothing.

And winning that hand doesn't guarantee you'll finish any higer than 3rd anyway (assuming the short stack does indeed bow out in the next couple of hands). Yes you'll be in better position to attack for 1st, but there's no guarantee that that will matter.

There's also no guarantee that you won't go on to win if you fold. You still have a strong hold on 2nd place and, well, stuff happens.

I'll take my 90% at guaranteeing some profit vs. my 75% chance of improving my chances to win the tourney.

Now my approach would probably change if this were a bigger tourney and the bubble waas a fraction of the bigger prizes. It would be a much better move to try to improve into a challenging chip position - but here I would probably do as you did - secure some profit. How much would you have hated your "call" decision if you lose and start telling yourself "all you had to do was fold!"?

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if you call and double up you're still not guaranteed first because as you said the other players can outplay you. So you're pretty much a lock on second with a chance at first if you call and win.

However you will get busted out say 20% and get $0 when you call.

You will get at least third about 80% of the time by folding and still have chips and a chance at second and first when you fold.

I think this one is pretty obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with this at all. The implication here is that even if you double up (to a slightly smaller stack than the chip leader) your chance at first is negligible; he doesn't even include a percentage chance that you will get first (which, if you call and win would probably be at least 30% given that you would then have nearly as many chips as the leader), which you absolutely must do if you are going to make this kind of calculation.

Given the difference between 3rd and 2nd money is relatively small (and the call probably most greatly increases your chances at 2nd place), I think it is closer than it otherwise might be, but I still think this is a call.

[ironman007]

Huh? This is an obvious call, you have no chance of winning if you can't pull the trigger and call with KK here.
Let's assume you win 80% of the time if you call with this hand.

Your Ev of calling is approx
you finish 1st 30% at $500=$150
you finish 2nd 50% at $300=$150
you finish 4th 20%=0

EV of calling is $300

You fold,
You finish 1st 0% of the time (someone explain to me how you can win if you can lay this hand down)
You finish 2nd 50% at $300=$150
you finish 3rd 40% at $200-80
you finsih 4th 10% at $0
Ev of folding is $230

This is example of playing no to lose, I'm all in instantly here.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
Huh? This is an obvious call, you have no chance of winning if you can't pull the trigger and call with KK here.
Let's assume you win 80% of the time if you call with this hand.

Your Ev of calling is approx
you finish 1st 30% at $500=$150
you finish 2nd 50% at $300=$150
you finish 4th 20%=0

EV of calling is $300

You fold,
You finish 1st 0% of the time (someone explain to me how you can win if you can lay this hand down)
You finish 2nd 50% at $300=$150
you finish 3rd 40% at $200-80
you finsih 4th 10% at $0
Ev of folding is $230

This is example of playing no to lose, I'm all in instantly here.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I agree with the conclusion, your math is suspect:

1. If he calls, he could also finish third. You give him no chance of this. I think the chances of third are pretty low; say 5%, but that's going to drop the EV a little bit.

2. He could still win if he laid this hand down. He'd have to get quite lucky, of course, so lets call it 1 or 2 percent. This will raise that EV slightly.

Thar will bring those EVs closer together.

I still agree it is a call, but it's closer than you might think.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
You finish 1st 0% of the time (someone explain to me how you can win if you can lay this hand down)

[/ QUOTE ]

If the small stack busts out on schedule, our hero will have >T5000 when he goes and the chip leader ~T28000.

If he wins consecutive coinflips against the leader at that point, our hero will be ahead T20000 to T13000. No guarantee he can win it from there, but he's got a 25% chance of getting there if he can get two allin coinflips (shouldn't be too hard with these blinds and chip leader going allin from UTG).