Style changing for the worse...

[drudman]

I've been playing online for a pretty good amount of time, and with a great deal of success.

This break I've been committed to a "by-the-book" style. I'm playing 3 tables 2-4, about 1000 hands per day. For a week, I was doing well, then I had a rough night of beats. Prior to that night, I had been averaging 4.5 BB/100, which I knew was bound to go down eventually. It did, to 3.5 BB/100. So I went out and bought HEPFAP (which I've read plenty of times anyways) and reread it. That was three days ago. The other night I lost 100 BB in about 700 hands, and my confidence is now absolutely shattered. I need to know from someone who has more experience than me what I should do with this fact. Is it possible to be playing winning poker and take that kind of swing that fast?

Rather than boohoo about it, I went into pokertracker and looked at everything. First, I looked at every hand that I lost over 4 BB on. It's really a lot of crazy catches on other guys parts, take my word I guess.

Here are some things that I've changed that I can notice since the first 10 days...

1) I'm checking a lot of flops and going for turn checkraises because I read it in HEPFAP. Normally I would just ram the pot as hard as I could, but Sklansky noted that most players with draws won't get pushed out by flop action, and by making the pot bigger, I actually make their calls on the turn more correct because they are getting better odds. This made sense to me so I went with it.
2) I was playing a more "Hellmuth" style before, playing even tighter and even more aggressive. Since then, I have started playing Axs and suited connectors more liberally, but within the correct contexts detailed in HEPFAP... open raising Axs on the button and occasionally from the cutoff, not playing smaller pairs as agressively, playing more suited cards in multiway pots, etc...

I'm just so disparaged right now, not sure how to get my confidence, and then my money back. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Tonight I tried to play more like the old me, ramming pots when I had the goods and dropping when I don't. I came back in the world about 30 or so BB over 800 hands, took a break, came back and got killed again, flopping straights twice, ramming, but still getting beat once by a river flush and another time by a runner runner full house, then flopping top set of Ks and having another guy flop a straight on me... just stuff that makes me want to cry. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Somebody tell me something that I need to hear. Until then, I'll be reading posts on the small stakes forum, rereading Sklansky, and scouring pokertracker with a finetooth comb.

[rusty JEDI]

Go play 10 Sit and Go's. Seems to pull me out of a slump everytime.

[drudman]

Okay, first SnG, first hand pick up QQ, raise to 150 preflop, get called, flop is K high, I bet 200, get tapped, I fold. A few hands later, JJ, I go all-in, get called by AA, I flop a set, he hits his too.

Second SnG, pick up JJ, raise to 100 preflop, called, flop is 5 high, I tap, get called by AK, river ace.

Third SnG, JJ again(!) late in the tournament, I reraise a stealer, putting me all in, he calls with 22, all undercards come, including a deuce and I'm out of this one.

Fourth, I finally make the money, go for a steal on the button with A6s, both other guys call the all-in?!... I'm up against A7 and KQ (wow), no one improves and I come in 2nd.

I'm all set with that suggestion Jedi, I'm going to wait to hear from everyone else. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Cyndie]

That is only four sitngos...and i don't know what limit it was, but my guess is those beats could have cost a lot in ring games.

[Stagemusic]

OK. First of all, some of this is gonna sound a little like I am piling on. Take my word for it. I'm really not. You have been pulling some pretty amazing numbers out of your butt for quite awhile obviously. This simply looks to me like the numbers are starting to catch up with you. An excellent player with no real bad habits of any kind couldn't honestly expect to maintain a 4.5 BB/ 100 ratio. In a quick game you are talking somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.5-3.75 BB per hour. My opinion, and realize I have no idea about your game, is that the numbers are just starting to bring you down to where you should be overall. If you are still making 3.5 BB's you are doing fine. Actually, you are doing a little better than fine.

Suggestion, go back and look at the totals over your all of your play. I would be willing to bet that you will see that it is just the natural fluctuation of the numbers. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[drudman]

I just noticed that I had forgotten to mention... my rate went to 3.5 BEFORE the last few days. The last few have dropped me down to like 1.3 BB/100. Believe me, I would NOT be complaining if I were making 3.5! So now, is a drop from 4.5 to 1.3 a natural fluctuation, that's the question I really want to have answered if possible. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The SnGs were 10+1s.

[LetsRock]

A couple of thoughts...

1. Your win rate is still quite high. You may just be experiencing a normalization that is bringing you win rate down to a "real" level.

2. Anytime you add new things to your bag of tricks, it's not unusual to experience a period of adjustment. You're trying new things; you may not always be doing them right yet.

3. HEFAP is not really targeted towards the lower limits - it says so right in the first few pages.

4. Perhaps your "Helmuth" style is the correct style for you or vs. this particular set of opponents. Not any one style will work for everyone or in every situation. It's important to recognize when something works and when something doesn't. Just because an expert claims that "this play" is usualy the best move, doesn't mean it will work consistantly in "your" environment. I think it's good to know as many options as possible, but it's critical to know when to apply any given move.

The "stuff" you're currently experiencing happens to everyone. I tend to have sessions that are pretty extreme - either I can do no wrong (too few), or I can do no right (too many!).

I had a session last night that felt more like what I expect most sessions to be like: didn't get a lot of hands to play, but won most of the hands that I did get involved with. Only had one hand that got "stupid beat": MESAWA (Misplayed Every Street And Won Anyway) and my hand wasn't all that strong. Didn't win a lot, but never really had to sweat. These types of sessions are very rare even though I would expect that about 85% of my sessions should be like that. Go figure. Ya really never know what a session will bring ya, so just keep swinging.

[RollaJ]

[ QUOTE ]
HEFAP is not really targeted towards the lower limits - it says so right in the first few pages

[/ QUOTE ] Ditto!
As for the SNGs....Sh*t happens

[tiltboy]

I'm still a bit confused about your numbers. You said you were playing about 1000 hands/day which is a pretty signifigant amount. Are the averages you quoted for all the hands you've played to date or for some subset since a previous date? For example you said IIRC you dropped from 4.5 to 3.5 then to 1.3BB/100. Was this your overall average BB/100 since you started keeping track with PokerTracker? Or do these numbers represent a BB/100 average for only a short period of time. I ask because playing as many hands as you do, to drop your overall average from 4.5 to 1.3 would be a very significant decline. However, if you are saying that say over the last couple of weeks you've averaged ONLY 1.3BB/100 then I would say first off, 'cry me a river'. j/k

Actually, I say that because I think it is not uncommon to have a period that long or longer where you may make no money or even have a negative BB/100 average. To use myself as an example, I had two months in a row at Party, playing primarily 3/6 where I could literally do no wrong. I think I played 10000 (opps, edited this because I played only 5000 hands/month-10000 total) hands each month and was making over 5BB/100. Of couse it didn't last and the last two months have been one long semi-nightmare of beats and bad cards. However if I average the entire period it is not much different than the overall BB/100 average for all the hands I've played at Party.

All I'm trying to find out is whether you are experiencing a natural and entirely expected fluxuation in your earn rate or whether you were just on an extended high and the regression to the mean has now caught up with you.

Personally I think it would be very difficult to sustain a win rate of 4+BB/100 indefinitely, even at Party. I am sure it can be done but I'd quess you are probably in the upper 5 percentile of Party players to do that considering the rake at 2/4. Just my opinion though.

[drudman]

My total BB/100 was 4.5... then my total BB/100 was 3.5... now it is 1.5. That's cumulative, not just my winrates during those particular periods. In other words, I have averaged much worse than 1.5 recently.