A big draw... or is it?

[elindauer]

Party 30/60. I'm in the CO with

A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Open raised on my immediate right. I haven't played a lot with this guy, but from what I can see, he's pretty loose and reasonably aggressive. This player will steal with a wide range of hands here. I 3-bet. TAP in the SB caps (crap). The three of us see the flop:

Q33 with one club.

Tap bets. Loose raiser calls. I call.

Turn: K clubs.

OK, I've seen worse cards. Now I have a gutshot straight to go with the nut flush draw.


TAP bets. Now it's raised on my right. Crap. I could be drawing super live, or totally dead. Yuck. I hate that pair of threes. I think and cold call. SB calls.


I think the results aren't so important, but if you're interested, they're below in white. Highlight to read.

<font color="white"> River is a blank. It's checked through. SB takes it down with AA vs "steal raiser"s AK. </font>

[biggambler]

21 small bets in the pot, and you have a flush draw and a straight draw. Pot is too big to fold here.

[WEASEL45]

Why did you call on the flop. Did you think that no one had a pair or better than AJ. Most people wont cap with worse than AJ so you probably have to go runner runner club to win. i would have folded on the flop for sure.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you call on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. I called for the following reasons:

- I'm getting 15:1 immediately. That's pretty good.
- There is some chance that an ace would be good.
- I have a couple backdoor draws. Besides club, club, I can go, KT, JJ, etc.
- My call closes the action.


So, add it all up, and I think it's close, but I'm not surprised to see that at least one person has doubts. I'm not positive myself. Anyone else have an opinion?

[sweetzer]

Without looking at the results, I don't think either opponent has KK or QQ for the full house. If the 4 bettor had KK he probably would have checked the turn for a check raise, and if the opener had QQ, I doubt if he would have raised with you still to act. Likely the small blind has AA and the opener AK or KQ. It's 2 bets to you to call 11 big bets, so I would call.

[Rock Solid]

I don't really see how any ace could be good at on the flop. How often do you see someone cap it from the small blind, with only three players. True you are getting a turn card for only one small bet at 17:1, but you could already be drawing dead. Plus you are going to HAVE to go runner runner. The K even though its a club, isn't really a good card. Keep in mind, you are only getting about 5:1 on your money on the turn, and thats if you aren't drawing dead.

[elindauer]

Hi Rock,

I don't mean to imply that my hand may be good now. What I'm saying is, if I catch an ace on the turn, it may be good. The SB could have KK, and the loose raiser could hold just about anything.

That said, I agree that calling the flop, even with very good immediate odds, is really flying on a wing and a prayer.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
21 small bets in the pot, and you have a flush draw and a straight draw. Pot is too big to fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's 2 BBs to you to call, in a 10.5 BB pot. thats 5-1 pot odds. you have 13 outs to *probably* the best hand - the nut flush or nut straight. If you hit you will get some action - at least calls, if not raises.

You will improve to a very big hand better than 1 time in 3. Call.

-Scott

[Gabe]

“I could be drawing super live, or totally dead.”

From the betting sequence, I don’t think you are drawing dead.


“Yuck. I hate that pair of threes.”

Look on the bright side. If they have KQ, you have a couple more outs.

[DiamondDave]

Fold on the flop. Save your energy for other decisions.