River Value Bet?

[Philuva]

Typical to weak online $20-$40 game. I have not played many hands with UTG+1 and don't have a strong read on him.

We are 7 handed right now.

UTG+1 raises. I 3-bet in the CO with J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. BB calls and UTG+1 calls. 3 to the flop with 6.5 small bets.

FLOP is 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Checked to me and I bet. BB folds and UTG+1 calls.

TURN is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Checked to me and I bet. UTG+1 calls.

RIVER is Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Checked to me. Check or bet?

[Ulysses]

Bet so he can give you another $40 w/ his pocket 8s. Even better, have a suspicious guy pay you off w/ AcTh.

[Vehn]

You have to bet this river.

[Ginogino]

Phil:
Easy value bet. Note how hard it would be for him to have a hand he'd want to re-raise you with. He doesn't have a full house (not on this betting). But if he has trips or a flush he has to worry about your strong betting, so against the large majority of players you're protected. I strongly doubt you need this protection, however.

How many players will wait until the river to raise you with a pair of queens (to become trips on the river) or a flush? A few, maybe, but your default assumption has to be that he'd have raised you on the flop (with queens with a presumably decent kicker -- or a flush draw) or on the turn (with a flush or top pair, decent kicker).

Gino

[bunky9590]

If that isnt an auto bet, I don't know what is.

[DanZ]

I once read somewhere than when you flop top pair out of position agaisnt a preflop 3 bettor in a non-steal situation, you should check and call to the river, letting the opponent hang himself if you are ahead. This is especially true when your hand is very safe - like an AQ or KQ with top pair.

So, on the river, you have a decision against a skillfull player, it is 7 handed, your bet may make him fold JJ (highly unlikely, but possible), and he could easily have TT or the like (88 perhaps). There are 8 AQ, 8 KQ available. If he holds one of these hands (though he may have played it faster), he may bet now since check - raising the river may not work.

So, if you can fold to a raise, and I don't think you can, that is another consideration.

So, yes, this is a tough one with some opponent knowledge required, but I am thinking a check is best with no opponent knowledge. The fact that he calls on the turn put a club in his hand most of the time, and the betting pattern suggests he has some kind of "safe" hand - TT would likely try to get you to fold somewhere. If hee does have a club in his hand, he either has no pair and can't call, or he has jacks (less need to make you fold early), or he has AQ or KQ with a big club - these are all more likely than a smaller pair you can beat.

Btw, if you have no line on someone after a few minutes, they are probably not an awful player, since an awful player rarely goes several minutes without doing something "creative". I forget how long you said you were in the game.

Dan Z.

[ActionBob]

This is a no-brainer. Bet.

-ActionBob

[bobgreen]

Phil,

Not a factor in your decision; just a story:

One time, in a similar situation, I bet and my opponent angrily folded his KK face up and said a dirty word, out loud!

Bob

[Philuva]

I bet the river. He called and showed Th Tc. My JJ was good. Thought it was an easy river bet, but wanted to make sure others thought as well.

Thanks for the responses.
-Phil