Small PP...tough flop choice

[Jerboa]

This is a hand I had problems with at $25 NL on Party:

Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: gbrookep ( $25)
Seat 2: chaddog ( $33.20)
Seat 3: SportBiker74 ( $44.70)
Seat 4: foysoo ( $26.80)
Seat 5: AdamSax ( $45.35)
Seat 6: Jerboa ( $31.95)
Seat 7: Osamma ( $9.35)
Seat 8: phil_connors ( $25)
Seat 9: beadgcf ( $44.55)
Seat 10: kurti ( $48.70)

I get dealt: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
I am on the button.

9 and 1 fold, all others limp in before me.

I just limp in.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Osamma goes all in ($8.85)
kurti calls
foytoo calls

What should I do? I was torn between coming over the top all-in, and folding.

I had figured Osamma was steaming a little...probably had a Q

But two callers means one probably has 2 pair, but one very well might have a set of 5s

[hanklove]

I'm all in.

[Guy McSucker]

Those two callers means that you might have trouble getting the set to stand up - flush draws, straight draws, perhaps two pair - but it is certainly no indication that you are behind. Since QQ would usually raise preflop, you only really fear 55. You can't fold a hand as strong as this without a very strong read that you're behind, which you don't have. You don't want to call and see the turn because there are so many ugly cards that will leave you with a quandary, and even if you don't get outdrawn you might lose your market if a scare card comes. Right now, it looks like everyone is ready to put the chips in, so go all-in.

Guy.

[1800GAMBLER]

Folding isn't an option. Calling isn't. Push in means the flush will call and make only a small mistake.

Min - 2 times the bet means both call, and you can force the flush to make a larger mistake on the turn. If the flush card (somewhat distant) does make the turn then you'll still probably be able to call and make money from thee implied odds.

Small buy ins here are trouble, you may not be able to charge a mistake on the turn or call it when the flush hits.

[Guy McSucker]

Push in means the flush will call and make only a small mistake.


That is true, because of the small stack sizes: our hero has only $31 in his stack and faces a bet of $9. There is something like $27 in the pot. If he pushes in, the flush draw has to call $22 to win $58, if everyone else folds.
He's about a 3-1 underdog, so this would be a bad call, but only just, as you say.

However, I don't think you can get the flush draw to make a worse call. If we min raise, he's getting 5-1 right now, which is fine with eight outs. That only leaves us with $13, and a pot of $54 going in to the turn. Now an all-in bet will give him 5-1 again. If the flush card hits, we have to call for our last $13, too. The flush draw has made no mistakes, and we have committed our whole stack to the pot. Yuck.

If you make it $27 rather than $18, you leave yourself only $4. This is as good as all-in to my mind.

So with these stacks, I am convinced all-in is the move. With stacks twice the size, I like the ploy of raising enough to make the flush draw make an error now, and leaving enough back to get another mistake on the turn.

Guy.

[crockpot]

you should go all-in here, for a variety of reasons:

- a lot of turn cards potentially beat you, and you won't know which one. furthermore, even if a scare card doesn't beat you, you have less betting power and you will get much less action from worse hands.
- if you make a smaller raise, you will be forced to call an all-in on the turn anyway.
- most players slowplay a hand as strong as a set here, so the bettor probably doesn't have you beat. i'd expect him to turn over top pair, or maybe a diamond or straight draw.
- even if the bettor is ahead (less likely than you think), you will be getting more money in the sidepot with the best hand.
- if you force a straight or flush draw to fold, you may save the pot for yourself ~25% of the time.

of these reasons, the first is the most important. any time a lot of cards may kill both your action and your betting power on the next round, getting your chips in the pot now is usually the best course of action.

[Jerboa]

So the consensus is all-in here? That's what I thought.

Unfortunately, at the time I wussed out, and layed down the bottom set. But I had the feeling that it was a very wrong play to do so.

Thanks folks!

Here is how the hand played out.

Turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

No further bets.

River: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

No further bets

Osamma shows down: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
foysoo: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
kurti: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]


Which really left me kicking myself on the laydown. I just wanted to confirm that my play was wrong, and I wasn't simply doing a (what-if).

[Zag]

Wow, you laid that down? You tight-ass. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The aspect that you are most missing in your game is not loose vs. tight, nor hand reading (both of which need work), but PLANNING! When you make a call, you have to decide what you are hoping for, and what you are going to do when you get it. In this case, you made the preflop call hoping for what? For a set and a chance to get all in with it! If that isn't what you are hoping for, then you had absolutely no business calling preflop.

I am sorry if I am being too harsh, but I can't make this point strongly enough. You are playing two different and incompatible games, here. Game 1 is the very tight game where you are only willing to play with a huge edge -- this is the player willing to lay down bottom set. This can be a profitable game, on Party Poker, but only just barely and it is boring as all hell. Game 2 is a more aggressive game, pushing smaller edges -- it is a higher profit but also higher variance game. This is the player willing to call preflop with a small pair. But he does it in the hopes of getting a set and getting all in. Not only is it unlikely to hit your set, but the set will sometimes lose. But the gamble is that you hit it and win often enough to compensate both for the times that lose AND for the vast majority of times that you miss the flop and have to fold. If you don't trust this gamble, then there is no chance of recovering the money spent in calling preflop.

With small pairs, the ratio that you are looking for is 12-to-1. That is, if you hit your set and it holds up, you have to expect to win 12 times your preflop investment. (You are 8-to-1 to hit a set, and then sometimes the set loses.) On Party (with its low buy-in to blind ratio), this is only going to happen if you get all in. If you don't think that you can make this much profit, then fold the small pairs preflop. There is no shame in folding them -- it is often the right play. Just remember that, if you do call with them, this is the number you are looking for. If you don't get that much, then the preflop call was unprofitable, even though it might have worked out that time.

[Jerboa]

Thanks for the response.

Believe me...when that 4 hit and the short stack pushed all in, I was jumping in my chair. My hand was already itching to drag that slider. It was the third caller that gave me pause.

I'm playing at the $25 tables for a reason. I'm still learning the game. (Both Hold-em in general, and NL particularly)

I think I was also still affected by a session the day before where I had pocket 8s, saw a beautiful flop (A,8,10). Got all my chips in, and saw a guy draw out on me with a 10,8 when 10s paired on the turn.

You aren't too harsh at all. I am still in the noob stages of poker. What I have been looking for is the balance of solid opening hand selection, and aggressive play after the flop. A short while later, I doubled up on top pair.

What's odd is I've noticed that many times my bets/raises are getting too much respect. So I loosen up, raising with just about anything and betting out on the flop, and it could be 45 minutes before someone decides to look me up.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

[ QUOTE ]
I get dealt: 4 4
I am on the button.

9 and 1 fold, all others limp in before me.

I just limp in.

Flop: Q 4 5

Osamma goes all in ($8.85)
kurti calls
foytoo calls

What should I do? I was torn between coming over the top all-in, and folding.


[/ QUOTE ]

Folding? Push in.

al