NLHE tournament strategy

[Greg (FossilMan)]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the Newbe, there is no need to gamble with 88 in this spot, ...

[/ QUOTE ]
Need? What has need got to do with it? You never NEED to gamble. You do it because doing so will win more than it will lose, in net EV. This spot is clearly one having +EV in terms of chips, and I believe it also has +EV in terms of money. If something more were known about the all-in raiser, or the other players at the table, this belief might turn out to be wrong. But, on the information given, I believe raising this all-in to have significant +EV in terms of chips and cash.

[ QUOTE ]
since I think it's safe to assume your a coin flip at best with this hand in this position and you could be a big dog with this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think that's a safe assumption at all. I've seen people make this move with quite a few hands where 88 is more than a coin flip. Ax with x being 8 or below is the most common of these. But Kx, Qx and even worse are not necessarily out of the question. Maybe YOU wouldn't make that raise with those hands, but there are plenty who would.

[ QUOTE ]
isolating the raiser might not work if someone behind you has a big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Lots of things MIGHT not work. What's relevant is not what might happen, but the probabilities of all those might-happens when put together.

Avoiding risk is generally a good thing. But not to the point where you're giving up on significant +EV opportunities. I think this is such an opportunity. Not as good as somebody raising all-in into your AA, but a significant edge, nonetheless.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[C-Dog]

What does everyone think of the guy raising all in on the flop? He is basically bluffing against a dry sidepot. It's that kind of play that bugs me at least. With the 88 I think going for it on the flop here is fine, you have an overpair. However if you had an underpair wouldn't a checkdown be more in order?

C-Dog

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Somebody just called the original raiser. You don't figure the caller for a bigger pocket pair, because he didn't reraise preflop. I now get a great flop like this, which is likely to have missed the other caller's apparent overcards.

I would consider it a big mistake to NOT bet this flop when holding 66 under these circumstances. I'm not worried about the sidepot, I'm worried about maximizing my total EV for the main pot. If he wants to call and create a sidepot chasing me as a 3:1 dog, fine. I'm not going to let him catch the J, Q, or whatever he needs for free.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
What does everyone think of the guy raising all in on the flop? He is basically bluffing against a dry sidepot. It's that kind of play that bugs me at least. With the 88 I think going for it on the flop here is fine, you have an overpair. However if you had an underpair wouldn't a checkdown be more in order?

[/ QUOTE ]

Regardless of this actual example, you're not bluffing if you can win a showdown against the all-in player. An underpair can win that showdown, and you may well get the non all-in player to laydown a better hand, or a hand with a good chance of outdrawing you if it was checked down.

You only really check it down to eliminate an opponent if it's in your interests to do so. Most often, maximising your chances of winning the chips in the pot will be worth more than maximising your chances of eliminating a player. Ocassionally it's the other way around.

[LetsRock]

I tend to agree with the thoughts of fold or raise to isolate. Being in MP, you don't have great position for the rest of the hand if you get other callers. I beleive the decision depends on the aggression level of the opponents left to act and their stack sizes.

With passive players and/or short stacks behind you, raising would be the choice as 88 is not the worst hand to challenge a player who may be panicking a bit early by going all-in. The raise needs to be big enough to give the rest of the table reason to fear calling which, in this case pretty much means shoving all-in; you'll be tied to the pot if you do as little as double the all-in bet (which is athe minimum I would consider big enough to be effective), so you might as well get them in.

If the players behind you are very aggressive or they have big enough stacks to kill or cripple you, then folding is probably best. There's really no reason to put yourself at risk at this time by challenging an all-in with 88 if you can't isolate. 88 is very vulnerable vs. overcards so you really don't want a lot of people in this pot. I'd have no regrets folding pre-flop here. Live to fight another day.

[DrPhysic]

Greg,
I know this is irrelevant to you, but it was a necessary exercise for me.

I saw 88 as a not much more than 50% shot against the range of hands that the EP short stack player would have. My gut said is was maybe a +.54 or +.55 EV.

You obviously know it is a lot better, but I had to figure it out.

I took all the hands the EP would reasonably have:
Any pair, A(anything), K(anything), and suited connectors from QJs to 54s. I know he could have a lot of other hands, but I think these are the ones he probably has.

I used the TwoDimes pokenum calculator to get the +EV for 88 against all of those hands, taking a rough average for AKs-A9s, and for A8s->A2s. Same for the other combinations.
Then tabluated the values, multiplied the number of possible hands by the avg +EV for 88 for that group of hands, Summed, and divided.

Average +EV for 88 against all reasonable hands he would have is +.61, or better than a 3/2 shot.

So of course you are right. I knew you would be, I just had to figure out why.

I guess I should have seen it. 88 is essentially a push against all pairs (6 smaller, and 6 larger), and has an obvious +EV advantage over any non pair.

Doc [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Bozeman]

In case you are interested, the exact expectation against this range of hands is 61.47 +- .02% (using PokerCalculator).

[ironman007]

I guess the big assumption here is how does the UTG player play with a small stack. We are guessing since we are not at the table observing the play. You assume he is very desperate and I don't think it's desperation time yet. The range of hands that someone pushes all in with in this position is a lot narrower, a suited connector like 54 would not be one of them since the chance of getting called are high from this position. If your up agaisnt a very patient, tight player you are in trouble here.
Greg, would you call with 66 after the opening raise and the flat call?

[drewjustdrew]

Do you not consider folding here? His stack size in relation to blind size indicates to me that he should be more afraid of people behind him. He is risking $1700, or more with an all-in bet, to gain $2500 in chips. I would think he could play this hand with more or fewer chips only because of what players behind him could have. He has just the right amount of chips to justify folding, in my opinion. Obviously, you don't agree. What would be your criteria in relation to stack sizes?

[DrPhysic]

Bozeman,
Almost exactly the result I got, but I am sure I did it the hard way. Ran the twodimes/pokenum calculator for Ak-A9 and A8-A2, and averaged them.

You obviously have a better method. How did you do it?

Doc