Limit Tourney hand that haunts me....

[whiskeytown]

This one is gonna haunt me...I took a course of action on this hand I regret and am debating whether it was the right course of action or not

down to 4 tables in a PS limit tourney (two tables pay) and I've been coasting on fumes...getting a hand when I'm about 4-6 times the BB and doubling up for the next round...

Problem is this hand....I get AK - but it's popped and repopped before it gets to me (and I'm in middle position)

Given these facts....

A) - the action on this hand preflop

B) - my read on St. Patrick (first raiser) - was that he raised too much with too many hands (he was the big stack and chip leader for awhile

C) - The Blinds JUST went up, so I'm not gonna see a BB higher the 400 for the next 12 min...

what would you do in this situation....stats - odds - guesses are welcome - (remember, this is limit)

I'm omitting what I did and what the flop was to get the best possible analysis without seeing what came next....

opinions/suggestions are welcome -

RB

*********** # 142 **************
PokerStars Game #xxxxxxxxx: Tournament #xxxxxx, Hold'em Limit - Level VIII
(400/800) - 2003/12/16 - 23:53:50 (ET)
Table 2' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: whiskeytown (2247 in chips)
Seat 2: katsa (10037 in chips)
Seat 3: trainwreck99 (5407 in chips)
Seat 4: dirtrancher (760 in chips)
Seat 6: mangas (2693 in chips)
Seat 8: st.patrick (14547 in chips)
Seat 9: hockeycoach (2708 in chips)
katsa: posts small blind 200
trainwreck99: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to whiskeytown [K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
dirtrancher: folds
mangas: folds
st.patrick: raises 400 to 800
hockeycoach: raises 400 to 1200
whiskeytown: ?
katsa: folds
trainwreck99: folds
st.patrick: calls 400
-----------------

results to follow soon -

[nummerfire]

I would fold. If you fourbet you will put most of your stack in and will be tied to the pot even with overcards.

I do not think calling is an option. You want to get heads up against the threbettors likely pocket pair.

You could argue that you have more than 1:2 odds of winning a threeway pot, but you put most of your stack at risk.

I would wait for a better opportunity. I always prefer to be the first aggressor in tournaments (especially limit).

Kim

[whiskeytown]

I wanted to bump this once to give the daycrew a chance to see it

I've since came to my own conclusions, but would like to see more 2+2 opinions before posting results..

RB

[ironman007]

I would base my decision on my observation of the 3 bettor. The opening raise probably doesn't mean much, he raises with a lot of hands, plus he's 1st in so he should raise if he's going to play. The big if is how the 3 bettor plays is he very tight or is very aggressive. What kind of hand would he 3 bet with.
If the 3 bettor was very tight, I would lean towards folding otherwise I'd call and try to triple up with AK.

[jedi]

I'd fold. If the re-raiser has a pocket pair, you're at best a coin flip to beat him, and that's if he doesn't hold AA or KK. The fact that it's been raised AND re-raised by 2 early position players tell me that it's trouble. Even if the first guy is nuts, chances are the 2nd guy isn't. I'd reluctantly fold here.

Note, in a real tournament, I'd probably raise. But that's because I'd probably be emotionally caught up in getting AK.

[whiskeytown]

flop came QJ10 rainbow and I had mucked the nuts on the flop (the board did pair on the turn but no one had anything worth 3 bets and no one could have beat my st8) -

thing that's throwing me on this is I did a check on poker calculator - and as long as I was up against ANYTHING but AA, I was at least a 35% fav. to win the hand with over 3-1 pot odds, AND that's only against both of them with pocket pairs - A7 suited (like on of them had) or random hands put me at almost a 50% fav.

I wish I had some balls - lost the money on that one and chickened out when I clearly had the advantage (I figure the 2nd guy reraised the first one to isolate it and get it heads up against the one who raised too often, cause he's the one who had A7 suited to that guy's K10) -

grrrrr..

RB

[LetsRock]

For what it's worth, I don't think you made a poor decision. In tourney play you have to be careful when risking a large portion of your stack. It's natural to kick yourself after you see that kind of flop, but you just couldn't expect that perfect of a flop for your hand. Any other flop and you'd just be praying for your hand to be good and that's not really how you want to play your last chips if you can avoid it.

Be careful not to let the outcome skew the fact that your decisoin was probably the best thing to do. Statistics this, statistics that; they're useful to a point. If you were at a more extreme chip level (against the wall or super tower) then yeah, go ahead and play the hand. At this point, you need to guard your stack and pick your moments and vs. 2 raisers I'd not be too likely to risk my stack even with this very good hand.