If Paradise sort out their multis......

[Jim Kuhn]

I respect your opinion but also disagree that Paradise will reclaim #1. I do agree the gap will narrow. When the promotion dollars are reduced and some of the fish die off the gap will really narrow. I think Paradise is currently #1 in profit percentage per player. My prediction for one year from now on total average players is as follows:

PokerStars
PartyPoker
ParadisePoker

18 month prediction:

PokerStars
ParadisePoker
Others
PartyPoker

This, of course, could change if Party gets their act together. But, they seem to be heading in the wrong direction. Their support seems to get more incompetent every day. You would think they would eventually pick up on poker related things. But...............

[Ro-me-ro]

I emailed Paradise about 6 months ago and they told me that multi-table tournies were coming in August. So Lorinda could be right on this one if they have finally produced the software to the required Paradise standard.

There is no way that paradise will launch Multi's with any major glitches. I guess they will need to be stress tested though and there will probably be a freeroll or two to celebrate [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

As for rankings, I'm not so sure that Paradise will become No.1, they will certainly close the gap. It's all about getting the fish to goto paradise...the rest will follow.

6 months

Party
Stars - will be closer due to the new WPT v good move.
Para

Rom

[Stew]

OK, I wanted to bring this back up top with my thoughts.

Lorinda, I respect no other poster here more than you, you always add vital content and comments to this forum.

However, I have to respectfully disagree here.

I don't think you have thought about why online Poker exploded over the summer.

Multi-table tourneys and bonus promos will help, but that will only keep them in the game. Every other site offers those things. Advertising on the WPT helps, but hell True and Absolute do that and it hasn't spiked their average number of players. They need what the other sites are doing to attract players, plus one vital thing and PokerStars has figured it out.

Remember last year when the first boom hit, sure Party was running it's commercials on the WPT and offering all sorts of deposit bonuses. But, remember when the Aruba WPT show aired and UB got so many players on their site it overloaded and shut them down. Fast forward to when the PPM aired, boom Party is now Number one. Finally, some clown from Tennessee wins the WSOP by playing a few tournies on Stars at a relevantly inexpensive cost and now Stars is in the fold.

What do these all have in common: they have somoe guy from Amsterdamn or wherever or some cowboy or some hick that has played his way into a major tournament final table at a very cheap cost and is playing for big money against big time players. That's what people want.

Sure, depo bonuses, advertising and multi's help. But Paradise has no 2 hour commercial for it's site that says, Hey come play here and you could be the next Cowboy or Juha or Moneymaker. Yea, they have the promos for it, but they don't have the show.

Stars figured it out and got a WPT event. Paradise won't make up any ground until they do something similar. Their own tourney where players can win their way in at a cheap price that is aired and makes some bozo with a hat or a funny name or a hick a chance at a millionaire.

Unti that happens, Paradise will just keep pace.

[mrbaseball]

Excellent points.

Sponsorship is coming to poker. I wouldn't be surprised if sometime in the not so distant future that "names" are actually sponsored to participate risk free. Or perhaps value added by sweetening the pot above the the actual buyin amount making the prize money even greater. Can you imagine the Paradise WPT event with something like 250K added to the prize pool coupled with a slew of cheapo satalites and then show it on WPT? It would be huge.

But your point is well taken. If TV poker continues to explode the natural sponsors will be online poker rooms. It makes a lot of sense to have each of these TV tournaments sponsored by online rooms. Party, Stars, UB and probably Paradise could afford it. Maybe some of the smaller rooms couldn't? But you have to be ready for it which UB wasn't. You have to make sure your servers and support can handle the onslaught.

You are absolutely correct. Ads and bonuses are one thing but actually being the show is another thing altogether.

[lorinda]

Sponsorship is coming to poker. I wouldn't be surprised if sometime in the not so distant future that "names" are actually sponsored to participate risk free

This is close to being the case already, I know people who were paid to wear CCC hats at major events, and others who get money for playing major events, with bonuses for good results.

Thanks to Stew for his post, (as well as all others in this thread) I believe that being in the UK I must have underrated the WPT shows (don't get me wrong here, I gave them a lot of thought, but having not watched them, have underestimated their impact very severely)

Lori

[Lori]

I don't think they will miss a trick.
- Lori

Wrong..... they missed 400m hand, they did however have the only thanksgiving bonus.

Party 10719 - Para 1481

Today's score

Party 12766 - Para 3756

(Paradise now has a case for arguing that it is the #3 site)

Lori

[TylerD]

[ QUOTE ]
Sponsorship is coming to poker. I wouldn't be surprised if sometime in the not so distant future that "names" are actually sponsored to participate risk free

[/ QUOTE ]
Its already here! Check out The Hendon Mob the UK's top four poker players have had their tournament buy-ins paid for by Prima for about 4 months now.

With regard to Paradise, I think its more likely that Prima overtakes them than they overtake Party.

Tyler

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think they will miss a trick.
- Lori

Wrong..... they missed 400m hand, they did however have the only thanksgiving bonus.

Party 10719 - Para 1481

Today's score

Party 12766 - Para 3756

(Paradise now has a case for arguing that it is the #3 site)

Lori



[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so, Stars and UB have been consistently doubling Paradise's number. So, they are still at four and have some catching up to do.

Right now (9:15 EST) which is just about the time when the numbers hit peak for the day:

Party - 5618
Stars - 1952
UB - 1417
Paradise - 740

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
I think its more likely that Prima overtakes them

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess theres no accounting for taste [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I can't believe people play on Prima? I wouldn't play there if they paid me. Oh wait? They did! For the first OIC. I hated everything about it.

To each his own I guess? But that software drives me batty and isn't a pleasant experience for me. They would have to greatly surpass Party/Empire before I would play there at all.

Paradise? All they have to do is get there multis going strong and I'm back there. Great software makes the experience palatable and Prima aint got it.

[joeypoker789]

ok Jim Kuhn. I need any action you have to backup this outrages prediction of yours. PokerStars #1. No way!!! It will not happen in 12 months or 18 months. Here is why, IMO:

1. poker is being driven by external events. Just look at the latest growth charts and it is pretty clear that this years big expansion was triggered by the Chris M. event (not my observation but I agree with it).
2. PokerStars was the site behind the Chris M. event but they really didn't get as much conversion out that event as PartyPoker did.
3. Why did PartyPoker get such great conversion? IMO, it is all about marketing. Look at what Party does today with direct affiliates and with "private label" rooms such as EmpirePoker. If PokerStars was competing against EmpirePoker, then PokerStars would probably win. But if you think PokerStars is going to knock off PartyPoker and its impressive stable of private labels (of which EmpirePoker is just one) and huge network of affiliate marketeers (my estimate is that 1 in 10 posters at 2+2 is a Party affiliate), then I definitely want some of that illegal substance you are obvious using.
4. Putting it another way on marketing, IMO, there is no way that one group of people located in Bangor Maine (or where ever PokerStars HQ lives) is going to better a world wide network of affiliate and private labels. This is the age of the network. Networks always win.
5. Until another room comes up with a marketing organization that can better what Party has on the table, PartyPoker will remain #1. IMO, PartyPoker must be laughing every day at the best efforts they see coming from their competition. Party gets it but everyone else in the online poker sector looks to be living on another planet. JMHO of course.

Bottom line IMO is that the next big event for Poker is going to be external (and is probably TV based -- just look at all of the TV headlines these days around poker) and the big winner will be the team with the best marketing. It is a network world. Marketing is everything. Party wins all the chips until Bangor Maine wakes up and smells the coffee [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Not that we outsiders will ever be able to know but I would bet that in 18 months EmpirePoker will be doing about the same level of business as PokerStars. I'd love to be able to find out just how well Empire is doing but I don't expect I will...

Paradise Poker with their MTT launch is another story that I won't bother speculation on. Rather I'm going to watch and see what happens [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] However seeing Paradise Poker fly buy PokerStars would not surprise me.