Strategy?? Will this work

[KingToad]

I play on Party 25NL, almost everynight. And everytime I play I run into this particular player (pokerministr). Her strategy is to sit at the table with $10. If she gets a PP, she goes all-in. These are the only hands she'll play if she is not in the blinds. She got 3 callers last night for three pairs and won each of them when people called with Ax or smaller pair. Then she leaves and sits back down with $10 again and waits for the same thing. Any idea how profitable this strategy is? When I have seen her do this she wins the majority of times(when she is called, usually one by 1 person). Just wondering.

[tewall]

I think it should lose money, even if noone notices what she's doing and adjusts. The odds are 16-1 against getting a pocket pair, so she won't get them that often. And when she does, much of the time they'll be crappy pairs, so if she gets called pre-flop, she can be dominated or at best a coin flip.

[Zag]

On Party $25, I bet it is a winning strategy, if you limit it to 88 or better (maybe 99). This is because you will get calls from so many Ax hands where the x is smaller than your pair. With two callers who each have just overcards, you are a very slight favorite if they do not overlap, a significant favorite if they overlap by one card (i.e. AJ vs AQ), and obviously, a big favorite if they each have the same hand.

Also, since everyone has a bigger stack than you, you might see one opponent drive out another opponent who would have beaten you -- i.e. KJ calls, then AK reraises and drops him out, then the board has a J but no A or K.

On the other hand, so what if it is a winning strategy against idiot, unaware players! There are much better strategies against them, and, by God, is it ever bo-o-o-o-o-o-o-oring. Maybe someone has figured out how to get a robot player in there, but hasn't figured out, yet, how to give it any decent strategy.

Of course, you can use your knowledge to your advantage. If she is on your right, you can reraise and isolate her when you know you have her dominated. If she is on your left and you have a big pair, be sure to raise just the right amount that a reraise from her will be exactly a full reraise, allowing you to rereraise hugely and drive everyone else out. i.e. If the blind is $1 and she has $10, then raise to $5.50 (a $4.50 raise) with your KK. If she reraises to $10 (another $4.50 raise), then she has opened up the betting for you again. If there were any other callers, you can blow them out, now. If you had raised more originally, then her reraise would not open up the betting for you. Admittedly, this opportunity won't come along very often, but you should be ready for it when it does.

[X-Calibre]

she is 6-5 against any non pair, sounds like positive EV to me
[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

a good player should obv be able to do better than 6-5 but think about her strategy she can play like 4 tables at once with no problem. It's like playing casino table game with the odds in your favor. The trick is she has to be getting callers a lot. Otherwise, at a better table, she'd run the risk of only getting called when she is beat and otherwise just stealing blinds. I guess that's why she does only 10 bucks, so that big stacks will routinely call her all in.

get her email and ask her about the strategy, sounds like it could have potential. Like for instance, she probably doesn't call all in if she's got 44 and the pots been raised substantially before her, or does she?

[Zag]

Actually, it is only 11-to-10, but the craps tables still make a lot of money for the casino with a smaller edge than that.

However, even this value is not exactly true. We quote that number because that is the amount that a small pair is ahead of AKo. However, 22 is a tiny bit behind AKs if the deuces don't include that suit.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7736

And 22 is distinctly behind TJs, given the extra straights that TJ can make over AK.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=57016

[ QUOTE ]
An aside ...

This fact is the source of this proposition bet: I deal out three hold'em hands:

2h 2c --- Ts Js --- As Kd

We will play a single game of showdown poker for $100, and I graciously let you choose first. If you pick the deuces, I take the TJs, if you pick the AK, I take the deuces, and if you pick the TJs, I take the AK. In every match-up, I am ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pair becomes a big dog against two non-overlapping, suited hands with overcards, and it just gets worse from there.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=146192

An finally, if you do this 10 times in a row and get lucky enough only to be up against AKo every time, you have acquired a fair bit of +EV. If, on the 11th time, you run into AA, you wipe it all out in one hand. Your total EV for the 11 hands is distinctly negative. That is the problem with being usually a slight favorite, but occasionally a huge dog.

[_And1_]

Nice one zag, with some nice numbers you have shown some simple facts. Thou i imagine that this "robot" doesn't play all pocket pairs in the same fashion couse if it does, as Zag have shown it problably aint going +EV (thou you can never to be to sure with all that "i have/had a feeling" going on). Thou just by excluding a couple of the lower pockets you will be huge favorite to some of the Ax hands and gain alot on the +EV. But then again, as some have stated earlier, why not play the hands and stack in a more winning fashion?

Tired of the chasing and trying to get the money inside preflop? But why only 10usd? Is it just the right number for smallstacks and nuckleheads to take a gamble?

[eMarkM]

Yuck. I don't get these small stack strategies, doesn't seem like that great a money maker. She's putting in her money on coin flips and more astute players are going to avoid her all-ins unless they have her dominated. Sounds like a scared money strategy. And not very dynamic. Which isn't how you want to play big bet poker.

Me, I want a HUGE stack that I can use to bully the rest of the table with. If my stack dips below $75 in a $100 max game, I rebuy to get back to $100. I want as many chips as possible when I finally get that set vs TPTK and get all the other guy's chips. That's the strategy you should pursue, getting your money in when you have the best of it and busting out the other guy's stack and sending him packing. And that means risking a lot against a draw and sometimes losing, but I prefer the more aggressive strategy to this timid one.

[strawdogg]

King,

Using Sklansky's Tournament System for the 25 NL Ring games doesn't seem to be working as welll there as a couple months ago. Even the fish are getting wise, that's why pokerministr, TheNameisNeo, Nefashu, and Mr. Andersen are all the same person in my opinion! Ithink it limits one's earning potential and shows that you are scared of being outplayed on the flop and beyond. Annoying? yes. Profitable? probably, but not much.

Strawdogg

[KingToad]

I have played all of these people before, (you too, if you use this name on PP) . This is definitely not the strategy I use. I was just wondering how much potential it really hand. Like I said I see her almost every night. I don't know if she comes looking for me (I don't think she thinks she can beat me), or maybe she looks for similar tables as I do (fishy). But I get no communication from her.

[strawdogg]

King,

The short stack definitely isn't following you, just looking for the most maniacal games. The short stack definitely doesn't talk to me after he won an all in, left, then came back under his other alias....I called him the worst cheeseball I've ever seen. lol.

Strawdogg