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#1
12-08-2003, 01:10 PM
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How do I convince my buddy that this is idiotic?
My buddy has a "system" that I think is absolutely ludicrous, but I (and another poker player) can't seem to convince him of this. He plays No Limit Sit and Go tournaments at Paradise. Here's the system.
Play in a $5+1 tournament. If he wins it, continue to play in the $5+1 tournaments. If he doesn't win it, he moves up to the $10+1 tournament and tries again. If he wins that, then he goes back down to the $5+1 tournament and starts over. However, if he doesn't win the $10+1, he moves up to the next limit ($30+1 I think). And so on and so forth. My first thought was YIKES! THis is a recipe for disaster. Much like the blackjack system of doubling your bets when you lose, but here the players IMPROVE as you get up in limits (generally). One other player and I have tried to convince him that it's a bad system, but he sticks to it because "I'm up $500 so far." Two things we've mentioned to him is that if he wins every tournament, he'll be stuck playing at $5 tournaments forever. Second, he complains that he's better at the mid level buy ins because people play tighter and are less fishy. Well, assuming that's true, then why doesn't he just play the $30 tournaments? Am I on crack, or is this a truly bad system? And what would other people say that might help convince my buddy to stop this? 
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#2
12-08-2003, 01:17 PM
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Re: How do I convince my buddy that this is idiotic?
Only you truly know if your on crack or not.
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#3
12-08-2003, 01:20 PM
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Re: How do I convince my buddy that this is idiotic?
[ QUOTE ]
Second, he complains that he's better at the mid level buy ins because people play tighter and are less fishy. Well, assuming that's true, then why doesn't he just play the $30 tournaments? [/ QUOTE ] Sorry for not really answering your question, but I have seen alot of this lately...why do so many people want to play against better players? Don't you want someone to call you w/ KJo when you have KK??
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#4
12-08-2003, 01:26 PM
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Re: How do I convince my buddy that this is idiotic?
Well, I think he was just frustrated with the number of suckouts and gambling that takes place early on the in the low level tournaments. My opinion is that he needs to learn to vary his game against all types of players, but if he recognizes where his strengths are, then more power to him. He does keep records of how he finishes at each buy-in level, so I should ask him about it.
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Second, he complains that he's better at the mid level buy ins because people play tighter and are less fishy. Well, assuming that's true, then why doesn't he just play the $30 tournaments? [/ QUOTE ] Sorry for not really answering your question, but I have seen alot of this lately...why do so many people want to play against better players? Don't you want someone to call you w/ KJo when you have KK?? [/ QUOTE ]
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#6
12-08-2003, 02:09 PM
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Re: How do I convince my buddy that this is idiotic?
Hi jedi,
If your buddy is more successful at the higher levels, he should stay there and drop down when he's on a losing run. Moving up to "get it back" when you're losing is a bad, bad thing, and he'll learn that once he goes bust once or twice. Cris
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#7
12-08-2003, 02:18 PM
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Re: How do I convince my buddy that this is idiotic?
Hi SossMan,
<<Sorry for not really answering your question, but I have seen alot of this lately...why do so many people want to play against better players? Don't you want someone to call you w/ KJo when you have KK??>> Yes, you do. What you don't want is for someone to call you with bottom pair when there are three of a suit on the board and you're bluffing a flush. Bad players will call in both situations, which limits your play. Good players win money in two ways: buying pots and selling pots. You have to be able to do both to win consistently, because on average the dealer won't give you enough monster hands and flops (selling pots) to survive. Extremely loose players make it all but impossible to buy a pot, so you're down to praying for cards and then dodging the bad beats. That's why many of us prefer to play with stronger players. Cris
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#8
12-08-2003, 02:47 PM
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Re: How do I convince my buddy that this is idiotic?
Hi Jedi,
The problem with this "system" can be seen just by looking at the blackjack case. There, the problem is not that the system doesn't "work" per se, but that the expected bankroll that you will need is infinite. You make money at a slow rate compared to the amount of money that you will potentially lose - if you play this game over and over again, you will bust any sized bankroll. Taking this back to poker, it is easy to see that if you simply play at the highest level that you can win (at a decent rate), you will make far more money in the long term, with far less risk (i.e. there's a bankroll for which you can be quite sure you will not bust out). If your friend insists that this "system" really works, try to get him to explain why it would not work for roulette. If he insists it would, drag him to the casino and watch the fireworks.
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#9
12-08-2003, 03:39 PM
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Re: How do I convince my buddy that this is idiotic?
[ QUOTE ]
Good players win money in two ways: buying pots and selling pots. You have to be able to do both to win consistently, because on average the dealer won't give you enough monster hands and flops (selling pots) to survive. Extremely loose players make it all but impossible to buy a pot, so you're down to praying for cards and then dodging the bad beats. That's why many of us prefer to play with stronger players. [/ QUOTE ] The idea that it is harder to win against bad opponents and easier to win against stronger opponents is absurd. Assuming you don't call pre-flop every time, you CAN wait for good hands to come along. That is the very POINT of the starting hand requirements in such books as HEP, HEPFAP and WLLH. Take a look at this link: http://www.gocee.com/poker/HE_Val_Sort.htm Assuming you are in a 10 person game, take a look at column "9". This shows the percentage chance of that hand winning when everyone goes to the river. Not half, not 75%, EVERYONE. Play only those hands where you will win more than 10% of the time. How can you lose? You'll win more than your fair share of pots at the LOOSEST table possible. If you play only hands that win 13% or more 100 times where it costs X to go to the river, you'll lose 85 times and win 13 times on average. You'll lose 87X and win 13 * 9X = 117X for a net gain of 30. You will be a winner in a far looser table than you'll find anywhere where people play for real money. On top of playing good starting hands you also get to fold post-flop when things don't hit, which saves you additional bets and you get to raise when you've got a great hand. All this only ADDS to your winnings. Are you REALLY saying you find it hard to make money against bad players that play far too many hands and take them farther than they should? Telling beginners to play stronger opponents because it is easier to make money against them is crazy. When a good player walks into a casino, he isn't thinking to himself, "Where are all the strong players?"
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#10
12-08-2003, 04:06 PM
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by having him lose all his money...
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