Did I hang myself with overthinking here?

Firstly, your flop raise looks just a touch too small, that's only a half pot raise. I'm probably being too picky here, but I'd make it at least $35. No big deal though

And yes, people call with flush draws, some people even do it on the turn OOP. So, if you are sure that he's not the type to bluff a scare card, then fold the river

preflop and turn play are good of course